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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Malloy who wrote (35215)	12/8/1999 7:57:00 PM
From: Doc Savage	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74651

John, you are making the classic MSFT mistake! After I first invested in MSFT (the day I saw the "lisa" stuff running on dos for those of you that were around in those days) and make some money, my brother-in-law advised me to sell as he had calculated the market for desktop operating systems and announced that MSFT was approaching maturity. Fortunately I didn't sell because I, a big Word Perfect user at the time, had seen Word and immediately liked the windows integration. I was also a user of Harvard Graphics and Lotus Notes and had intuitions about what Microsoft might do there. Later it was, as a UNIX developer, when I heard about NT, then IE, then... The point is, when you consider that we are just beginning the Technological Revolution and take a look at what Microsoft is doing (the future has no wires!) and is in a position to do, calling Microsoft mature is like calling Tiger Woods mature. Sure he has won his share of tournaments but he is nowhere near his prime! In ten years Microsoft will be making lots of money off of things you haven't even heard of yet! What kind of numbers do you come up with if you continue to project the 41% growth rate?

To: John Malloy who wrote (35215)	12/8/1999 9:38:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

JM: MSFT is the most undervalued stock on the market today. It is a value play! You get 40% growth for next to nothing.JFD

To: John Malloy who wrote (35215)	12/8/1999 11:08:00 PM
From: taxman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

"to 23 %/yr. in five years" you can't even tell me for sure what microsoft will earn this quarter--let alone what the growth rate will be in fiscal year 2005. regards

To: John Malloy who wrote (35215)	12/9/1999 12:51:00 PM
From: ericneu	Respond to of 74651

The second key forecast is the price/book ratio investors will pay for Microsoft. They currently pay an extremely high P/B of 15, well above P/B ratios of 2 to 3 typical of mature firms. As growth slows, investors will lower the P/B ratio they are willing to pay. You also need to forecast how the P/B ratio will fall. --- What meaning does price-to-book have for a software company? What makes Microsoft valuable is a) the software and b) the skills and knowledge of the employees. - Eric

To: John Malloy who wrote (35215)	12/9/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

John Malloy, Microsoft will grow its EPS by 50% in Calendar 2000 and another 60% in calendar 2001. That is all I care at this point. Go figure, that would be about 1.70 (cy1999) * 1.5 * 1.6 => 4.08 by December 2001. Multiply that with what ever you want, but I am going to multiply that with about 75 or stock to be at 300. We can all write books on how it will mature etc.. More likely it will spin off into several companies either by breakup or by design and each will carry a trillion market cap for about 5 companies. That (5 trillion) will be about 10 times today's value.