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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Valley Girl who wrote (35216)	12/9/1999 11:07:00 AM
From: Valley Girl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Fellow cowards (somewhat off-topic): FWIW, the fruits of my search for alternatives to MSFT: 52-wk 5-yr growth Inst. Symbol Price high P/E Target past est. Hold. Rating MSFT 92 101 63 115 41% 26% 37% 1.29 SEBL 76 80 164 ? n/a 42% 25% 1.44 NOK 170 179 73 225 n/a 27% 25% 1.61 EMC 96 97 89 91* 30% 29% 66% 1.54 CSCO 100 102 157 85* ! 29% 57% 1.56 WCOM 78 97 48 130 n/a 30% 62% 1.65 INTC 75 90 37 95 25% 19% 49% 1.32 DELL 43 55 63 60 69% 32% 37% 1.03 LU 82 83 48 100 n/a 22% 40% 1.32 AOL 81 88 243 100 n/a 51% 21% 1.5 The stocks were selected for (a) having some measurable earnings, (b) having above-market projected growth rates, and (c) having a decent number of analysts following them. Some notes re. the chart: 1. The rating was computed by scoring on a scale from 2 (buy) to -2 (sell), centered at 0 (hold). Most of the ratings were either buy (2) or accumulate (1), with a few holds (0). SEBL was the only stock on the list that had any analyst rate it lower than a hold (there was 1 person with a sell on SEBL). 2. The institutional holding number fails to account for unique situations such as the fact that Gates owns 900 million shares of MSFT, Tom Siebel and Michael Dell owns big chunks of the companies bearing their names, etc. 3. The earnings estimates are just educated guesses by the analysts, who are often wrong. In particular I'll note that the projection of 25% growth for MSFT looks just like it did 5 years ago (a period where the actual growth was 40%). Also, the number I found for CSCO's past 5-yr growth (28%) didn't seem to square with the facts as I've experienced them, so I omitted that number. 4. The targets are from my broker. Two stocks (CSCO and EMC) are already above those targets. He didn't have a target on SEBL. 5. Conspicuous by their absence are two well-known big-cap techs. One I own a large position in already and so didn't consider it. The other, SUNW, looks overvalued, so again I didn't consider it (but FYI the numbers I have for it are $81 price, 100 P/E, 20% growth). I'm not bailing out of MSFT mind (at least not yet), but I am diversifying. I already own CSCO, SEBL, and NOK, so my plan is to add to them only on weakness. I held my nose and bought some EMC this morning, despite thinking we're seen it's run for the near term, again I hope to add on weakness. I also own INTC, and I'm not inclined to increase my exposure especially since the projected growth rate was the lowest of the lot. DELL looks attractive but would increase my exposure to the PC market, so I'll pass unless it tanks to 35 (which I doubt). The chart on WCOM makes me wonder if I'm jumping from the frying pan into the fire, but my broker really likes it and it scored well with the many analysts covering it, so I bought some this morning and will just have to wait and see. As always, invest at your own risk and do your homework.