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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor Clouseau who wrote (41440)	12/8/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: TheKelster	Respond to of 108040

The current price is all inclusive up to the moment. If it's gold and no one wants it, it's worthless, even if it is fundamentally cool. KK

To: Investor Clouseau who wrote (41440)	12/8/1999 8:57:00 PM
From: TheKelster	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108040

The current price is all inclusive up to the moment. If it's gold and no one wants it, it's worthless, even if it is fundamentally cool. "A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing." "Devil Take The Hindmost, A History Of Financial Speculation", by Edward Chancellor. "According to modern economic theory---which holds that markets are efficient, i.e., that share prices reflect intrinsic values, and that speculators are simply rational economic agents intent on optimising their wealth--the history of speculation is a dull affair. In the world of efficient markets there are no animal spirits, no crowd instincts, no emotions of greed or fear, no trend-follwing speculators, and no "irrational" speculative bubbles. "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" (1841), by Charles Mackay. "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one." History, it has been said, repeats itself. Premium Hands, KK

To: Investor Clouseau who wrote (41440)	12/9/1999 8:00:00 AM
From: TheKelster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108040

NTPL TA Positives. I would like to add to my NTPL notes. The upside of the picture is seen on the 60' chart. You have a window that is a bit ragged between 6 3/4 and 6 15/16. NTPL nearly touched down yesterday on the 6 15/16 mark for a 2nd test of the window. If the window holds today and the stock rebounds in a completed 2nd test of the 6 3/4 the stock could very well begin the next up leg. That scenario would dovetail nicely with the 3 day down system. Keep in mind the MM's could work a spike through the resistance area that then returns and closes above the 6 3/4 mark. With the right daily action you could then have a hammer resting on the window sill. The only problem with the above scenario is you won't know if the breakdown is only a spike or more permanent until it's over. A break down through the window that ends the day under the window is not the kind of results you want to see. That makes today a pivotal day. You can see a near exact copy of this pattern played out from 11-29 through 12-3. The 3 day down in the current form is actually found in 3-4 different TA methods. It is a commonly found and often relied upon system for moving in and out of stocks. On a strong stock the reversal occasionally comes some time during the 3rd day leaving the chart only showing 2 days down. As to the volume, it does add to the positive side of the ledger. As the price pulls back and the volume declines it indicates that the holders of the stock are not really all that interested in selling. When the potential buyers give up waiting for the pullback to conclude a rush of buyers taking what's available create the next volume spike and the stock resumes it's upward trend. The only potential fly in the ointment with the volume is this stocks past history. This stock has a 65day average volume of 400K. Much lower if you factor out the past 5 days. Lets say and average day's volume is about 250K. The stock traded in the millions for the past week or so. Thus the declining volume may not support the above picture. It may just be a return to the historical mean. If today finishes as a down day, but above the window, then tomorrow is make or break. All this only points out the great difficulty of our work. The best approach is the old cliche "Cut your losses, let your profits run". or as they say in ROUNDERS, "We don't gamble, we grind it out...Get your money in when you have the best of it and the rest of the time protect it. Don't give nuthin away". Premium Hands, KK