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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (56523)	12/9/1999 12:37:00 AM
From: IndioBlues	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Vastar to develop Horn Mountain deepwater oil find HOUSTON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Vastar Resources Inc. (NYSE:VRI - news) said Wednesday drilling at the Horn Mountain oil field in the Gulf of Mexico confirmed reserve estimates exceeding commercial thresholds. The company said conceptual engineering studies necessary for developing the field have been started. Vastar holds a two-thirds working interest in the Horn Mountain field, on blocks 126 and 127 in an area called Mississippi Canyon, and serves as operator. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:OXY - news) owns a one-third interest. The field, located in deepwater off the mouth of the Mississippi River, contains 34-degree gravity crude oil. ``The appraisal drilling program confirmed that the Horn Mountain field's extent and geology are as we expected. Thus, we are still comfortable with our pre-drill estimates that the field contains approximately 125 million barrels of recoverable reserves,' said Philip Behrman, Vastar's Deepwater Exploration manager. ``We are now proceeding with reservoir engineering work and studies of development options, and are excited about moving Horn Mountain toward eventual production.'

To: Gary Burton who wrote (56523)	12/9/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thanks, Gary. No question the market averages, techs and internets are absurd, and a number of other sectors are fundamentally on the brink, IMO. But I've thought that for quite some time now. My guess is that Greenspan, in the great tradition of people leaving messes for their successors, won't allow the bubble to pop until it's time to retire. But I'm not willing to stake my net worth on that. More interesting to me is the fact (and it is a fact) that value funds are fading into the sunset. Every quarter, when value fund managers send out their reports, and they show miserable performance compared to the averages or to mo-mo funds, they lose customers. That forces more redemptions, which weighs on value stocks, leading to continued poor performance. It also provides periodic adrenalin injections to the bubble stocks. I expect value investing will come back into vogue someday, but it isn't even on the map these days. Back to oil -- I'm not in love with these stocks by any means. I believe business is more likely than not to improve significantly, but I am not convinced that will lead to radically higher stock prices. I think a lot of people who rode this elevator up to 91, down to 65, up to 88 and down to the 60's again are ready to bail if and when we get near 90. I'm watching a couple of things. First, as I mentioned yesterday, crude futures are close to making a bearish divergence -- just need to pop over $27 and change. Second, the weekly macd for the OSX is poised to cross over. That could be bullish initially. Of course, it could set up a more significant bearish divergence. Third, the OSX hit a wall EXACTLY at the 50 day EMA yesterday; I don't believe that is a coincidence. It will be interesting to see whether that will be penetrated in the next few days. At least the OSX closed above the 200 day EMA. Hopefully that will be support for now. Finally, it is interesting to compare the haves and have nots in this sector. If buyers jump on the cheaper issues, they could help move the average. If sellers bail from the pricier issues, the OSX could sink. Never a dull day in this sector. One more question -- your alternatives (bullish and bearish) both seem to point to a near term visit to the 88 level, if not higher, before the pattern plays out. Eleven or twelve OSX points is a pretty sizeable run (not to mention the additional points if the OSX first retraces a few points). Aren't you a little bit tempted to play this run, perhaps with OSX options, or with cheaper options on an individual issue that mirrors the OSX?