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Non-Tech : Tyco International Limited (TYC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John who wrote (878)	12/9/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: Jay Rommel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3770

> 3. Will downgrades from key supporters be forthcoming in light of today's informal inquiry announcement? AGAIN, P. Young and M. Gardiner of Merrill came out this morning and defended TYCO ... No change in their opinion BUY and LONG TERM BUY They are buyers on any weakness... It takes a lot of B*LLs for folks here to buy TYC today. Let's see 29 3/8 .... damn, I should have bought more.

To: John who wrote (878)	12/9/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: JDN	Respond to of 3770

Dear John: Thinking, thinking,..... First off no one is going to have any action against this Tice fellow. He does not work for US he works for HIS Firm. Now if it turns out he is an idiot he likely will be fired for the embarassment he caused his firm. If he is right he is a hero and gets some kind of promotion. Thats it for Tice. As to the SEC, unfortunately they are not known as Speed Demons. TYC is a very complicated company and quite large. Unless it is one specific thing, which I do not believe it is, it may take several months for this to be resolved. But the company had no alternative. They MUST get this settled to open up the stock to climb to and above its previous highs. Finally, lets assume the worst, something is just not quite right with their accounting. SO WHAT!! Unless the Revenues and Assets are false, which I seriously doubt, thats HISTORY. Stocks should be priced on their future potential. I cant see ANYTHING that would change what we know about TYC going forward, can ANYONE?? Those of us that were fortunate to get in this morning have a really nice ride ahead IMHO, those of you already in IMHO would be very foolish to sell at these prices. You may be underwater for awhile but as I believe MANG said, in the end you will prevail. JDN

To: John who wrote (878)	12/9/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: Terrapin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3770

Hi John, Thanks for posting the scenarios; gives the thread something to focus and build on during this turbulent situation. Here's my spin: Scenario 1: Tice's assertion that Tyco has "accounting irregularities" is proven to be true by the SEC inquiry. From my memory of the report (of which I only had access to snippets) the original accusation was very mild. The author went out of his way on many occasions to state that he found no fraud. He did not open himself to legal solutions. I hope somebody can correct me but that was my impression. So I think the first scenario could be broken into two possibilities: A) The SEC confirms aggressive but legal use of pooling accounting that could be construed as "misleading" and for which Tyco would not have to admit wrongdoing. B) The SEC uncovers something new that they can stick to Tyco's accounting. [This is the real risk IMHO. Pooling accounting is a complicated thing and the SEC auditors are not idiots] I may be splitting hairs here because the market reaction to either of the above would be vastly similar. Scenario 2: Tyco's assertion that they do not have any "accounting irregularities" is proven to be true by the SEC. If this happens then I would hope that Tyco management gives the media the full court press to trumpet the exoneration. Unfortunately I have to agree with whoever said that the momentum crowd is not likely to jump quickly back into this one. Remember that the glowing recommendations are coming from SELL-SIDE analysts who have an incentive other than our own. This stigma will last for many quarters and people nowadays are not willing to wait around when there are rockets out there that double in a week. But remember that nothing has changed for the company since Tuesday. If you were convinced that the Tice report was rubbish then you must look upon this as a was for Tyco to get some official clearance from the Tice-effect. Could they find something else? Sure. Is it strange that one man's report would have such a long lasting effect in the first place? Sure. Am I watching years of adherence to a Buy&Hold strategy get trampled? Sure feels like it. May you live in interesting times, Terrapin