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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (93693)	12/9/1999 6:16:00 PM
From: The Duke of URL©	Respond to of 186894

...Am I overestimating the importance of this product?... No.

To: Road Walker who wrote (93693)	12/9/1999 8:50:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John - Re: "Am I overestimating the importance of this product? Or are the analysts, in their infinite wisdom, choosing to ignore it's impact? My limited knowledge of the industry makes me believe that there will be significant sales at great, incremental, gross margins. " ITanium will be released for system sales in about Q3 of year 2000. The unit sales will be modest - even though the ASPs should be quite high (>$3000/ITanium). Net, Net, ITanium revenues will be small in year 2000 compared to the $30+ Billion that Intel should make in revenue. The real impact will come in 2001 and beyond as (hopefully) ITanium software and hardware make this an overall compelling choice for workstation and server performance/price value. Now, no analyst that I can remember focuses on anything but the current quarter's business. In fact, they do not perform any STRATEGIC ANALYSIS whatsoever. They only react to current information, rumors, heresay and other short term noise functions. Paul

To: Road Walker who wrote (93693)	12/9/1999 8:52:00 PM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

re: Itanium I don't believe I have seen any analyst even mention the Itanium 2000 roll-out when they review Intel's valuation" Hi John, I've been wondering about this too. Paul, do you know how long it takes for a brand new processor to roll out and start having impact on the bottom-line? Once it ships, does it take 2 quarters or 4? It'll take time to get customers to develop to this platform. The thousand samples they mentioned in the PR will help (i.e. getting started early), however, I really wonder how long this will take before it significantly shows up in the bottom-line? RE: "Am I overestimating the importance of this product?" I think it's important. I may be overestimating it short-term because maybe rollouts take a long time. I don't know. I think the question is, "how long will it take to really roll this out to a wide base?" Which quarter of which year? RE:"will be significant sales at great, incremental, gross margins." My thoughts too. Higher margins I bet. RE: "potential certainly isn't in the stock price." One reason why I keep buying INTC for the long-term. Amy J

To: Road Walker who wrote (93693)	12/10/1999 8:47:00 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John, RE: I don't believe I have seen any analyst even mention the Itanium 2000 roll-out when they review Intel's valuation, earnings projections, or industry leadership. I haven't seen any comments on how this could change the industry, especially the balance of power with SUNW. Although Intel PR has been OK on the progress of Itanium, it seems like it is a secret to the street. On the contrary, just about every analyst report that I've seen recently that recommends Intel mentions Itanium early and often. Example: The most recent report to hit my desk is from Erika Klauer from Deutsche Bank. In the conclusion, it states, "If Intel can duplicate even a portion of its PC microprocessor success within the Server, Networking/Communications and Online Services areas, the company's growth prospects should be outstanding. In 2000, we expect overall sales and earnings growth to approach 18% and 23%, respectively. These rates could easily prove conservative if Intel's traditional operating success is applied to these three new avenues." BTW, most analyst reports that I've seen do not show any material impact for Merced until 2001, with volume contributions expected in 2002.