Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (56607)	12/9/1999 6:53:00 PM
From: Elmo Gregory	Respond to of 95453

Wonder what Frost knows about BHI that the others don't. Baker Hughes coverage initiated by Frost Securities with Strong Buy Baker Hughes downgraded by First Union Sec, Mrgn Stnly Dn Wttr, Schroder & Co finance.yahoo.com Bought in at 16-7/8 but should have waited a little longer I guess.

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (56607)	12/9/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

JimL good points on the "clouds" over the 'patch/NEW METRIC ! The Clinton admin. per Richardson's comments is simply taking "the peoples" position and huffing & puffing imho. While this will allways lead to a small correction in crude; as it "is" a possibility that the US "could" sell strategic reserves - I think the Kuwaiti Amabassador came out and said that he just got guarantees from the Clinton Administration that the selling of the Strategic Reserves was "NOT" one of the "options" Richardson was alluding to. ... this basically exposed the posturing by Richardson for what is was. (where was this asshole when the Chinese were raiding our Nuclear Secrets ? - watching Monica through the peephole ?). The "long" bet on the sustainability of crude oil - is the surest bet that I see in Energy. But, being right on that bet no longer guarantees that OSX stocks, or even E&P's themselves will sustain or rally. OPEC is NOT stupid. Trust me; they have seen how the market has punished them on just these inane "sourceless" rumors & quotes from Doomberg, or when their compliance begins to even slip a tinch... Let alone, how crude allways sells off prior to their meetings etc. They know the Bears platform of the unsustainability of crude prices here - and now they are supposed to just go into "brain-fade" and increase production for Willyboy ? ROFLMAO ! OPEC unequivocably KNOWS that ANY wavering here would absolutely be met with a SEVERE over-reaction in a downdraft in crude prices. It would be a speculative reversal. They can not win by increasing. We are so far from a sentiment environment to where the market would stabilize crude downward on production icreases - that to expect OPEC to do so here; is beyond self deception and it "IS" a complete insult towards the intelligence of OPEC. The ONLY way they can EVER increase production in the near future - is for the world to be collectively brought to its global knees; and we "aint" close to that yet. Look at the interpretation of the supply #'s that the bears were pointing to of late. They see full tankers lost at sea in their sleep, they see missing barrels everywhere they look... OPEC is not so stupid as to think that if they help out the American Electorate here, out of the kindness of their hearts (VBG) - for Clinton & Richardson et al; that crude would just ease on down to that magic fair value of $22... Hell no - it would crash to $16ish within weeks imho. One other slam dunk factoid; that also virtually guarantees that OPEC is NOT going to ease production - remember the articles posted here on what a financial crisis the Governments in the Middle East Countries are in ? They've had massive cutbacks in social services to where some countries were fearfull of civil war... These internal Governments are no where near fiscally repaired - NOT EVEN CLOSE ! OPEC IS NOT EASING ANY TIME SOON - BANK ON IT ! They are more likely to commit mass suicide at the next OPEC summit than to ease production prior to March - or actually the rescheduled meeting into late spring,early summer... This is why Crude oriented pureplay's are the only "safe" bet imho, like VPI - who is totally unhedged, and incredibly leveraged to each $1 change in Crude to their bottomline. They also have some exciting Intnl exploration upside - are one of the few who have and who will continue to grow production at strong rates. VPI is "THE" play on crude oil presently. NEV will be as well if their shareprice stays here untill their terrible hedging position ends. The major "cloud" over the oilpatch imho is Natural Gas prices, or actually - not the prices; because $2.25 Nat Gas is supportive of 5 year highs in this damn sector in the past - let alone with $25 Crude Oil !?!?!? So, it's - "The sentiment-stupid" that must change toward Nat Gas. We not only guarantee the bottom is in, but can reverse +35% in the E&P's & +15% in the OSX imho; on only Nat Gas changing upward. ... and what changes sentiment toward Nat Gas ? one word: WINTER !, or the lack thereof The other major cloud is "momenteum" - that is the icing on the cake. While Nat Gas, or the sentiment toward it can guarantee the bottom is in and move us back "near" prior highs; we WILL need the momenteum money to rotate back to the oilpatch from the DOW & TECH-fantasyland; before we move to the Boom 2000 mode imho. Without the mo-mo money; OSX 90ish is resistance. So, untill the NASDQ & DOW implode; pray for cold weather & a move in Nat Gas - then we can put the bottom in (go back on margin (VBG) and move back to at least resistance - all the while, praying that the tech-fantasyland blows up and gets the mo-mo moving back to reality once again... Crude is the rock - we WILL see $30+ - but, it may not matter as crazy as that sounds... Would ANYONE have believed that we could be looking $25+ crude oil in the face with OSX 70ish ? Hey JQP - how about "Crude $ per OSX point" as a new valuation metric (VBG) ? Do you like that one ?