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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (35735)	12/9/1999 8:24:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Don if institutions want RMBS in their portfolios at year end. Why would they? Institutions added over 2 M shares from 6/30/99 to 9/30/99 to over 10 M shares held. See my previous posts. This was in a time frame that most posters on this board, at least me, knew that RDRAM market shares for 00 and 01 should be much lower than what was expected as of Jun 30. However, the expected market shares for RDRAM over next 24 months as of Sep 30 is not much lower than what is expected today. Either the analysts are extremely stupid or I am more astute than I thought. I see RMBS market share going from <1% in 99 to 10% in 00 to some number larger than that in 01. By July, RMBS will finally be in positive earnings growth mode and people will be clammering for this stock. What is oversold for RMBS today I don't know -- 45 to 50. I do know that 90-100 is over bought. The gaps are everwhere on the RMBS chart. I just don't think RMBS will flurish until Intel straightens out their act and has 820/840 chipset based products out there for people to buy using RDRAM. In addition, Intel to address clearly their plans for the mainstream desktop segment with the 815 chipset which will only support PC133 when it comes out in early 00. Then lay out definite plans to support RDRAM with next generation chipset when it appears the mainstream desktop segment of market will be at the 750-800 MHz microprocessor range 12-18 months from now. Secondly, address the rumors about DDR. It will be limited to the server marketplace. If you think DRAM manufacturers can make DDR as cheaply as PC100 your kidding yourself. The major reason for the failure of the 820 chipset with the MTH utilizing SDRAM was that DRAM manufacturers could not make PC100 SDRAM compliant enough to meet Intel's well documented specifictations for PC100 RAM. see ftp://download.intel.com/design/chipsets/memory/valweb1.htm (NOTE look at files in this folder; every one of them is RIMM production related. This one sticks out like a sore thumb category wise. This file first showed up in Aug right before IDF when it was clear that Intel intended for OEM's to use PC100 RAM with with 820 chipset until RDRAM costs came down. It just wasn't clear until recently that not all PC100 SDRAM would be fully PC100 complient as we learned this week.) Do you think memory manufacturers will do better job with a memory platform that will require much tighter tolerances cheaply. I doubt it. john