To: Saturn V who wrote (93713 ) 12/9/1999 9:22:00 PM From: Amy J Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
RE: "How do you value such a company ? I have not found anything which answers this question. I would appreciate if you can point me to anything in this area." Hi Saturn V, do you mean the investment arm? I'm not sure what aspect of the valuation you are wondering about? RE: "It seems that the only question being asked is how big is the potential world wide market for an internet product or service, and implicitly assume that the company will hit 100% of that market in four years." Well said. Exactly my concern. I don't like stocks which pre-count into stock price. (Which is another reason why I like INTC). RE: "It sure smells like Tulipmania." From the standpoint of an operations, it isn't: what I mean is, you've got to grow faster than your competitor and time is the most critical component in this, which means if you are sitting on money, you aren't hiring enough people nor moving fast enough. Sitting on idle money is the worse evil. However, this (need to go quicker than the competitor in an extremely hot economy) is certainly fueling a Tulipmania, no doubt. Both points are valid. However, one company or startup can't stop unless everyone else stops. What will stop it will be when the institutional investors say they've had enough. But, so far, they keep getting rewarded, which fuels it even further. RE: "I wish that the same logic is applied to Intel Itanium and the internet businesses." No, I don't wish this at all. It lets you sleep well at night. Would you sleep well if you had 50% of your stock in today's YHOO valuation? I love bottom fishing. INTC is the only stock which doesn't appear to pre-count opps in its stock price. Thus, it's an excellent haven when compared to other high flyers which could burst and is an excellent foundation which allows venturing into more riskier stocks. At this point, I don't think it would be wise to have a large amount of money in today's stocks whose PEs are >>>> very large (unless there was a good reason: early stage in new market which justifies the PE, etc.) RE: "these businesses are not projected to have significant profit next year, and are thus adding zilch to todays Intel stock price." I think they are added as a profit/loss when Intel makes the actual sale transaction of the stock whose company they've invested. However, before it is sold, how is Intel's investments accounted for in their books? I would be curious to understand this. GV Tucker or Windsock probably could help us understand this. RE: "Internut bubble finally corrects, what will be the impact on the rest of the stock market and the economy ?" Ouch. At least Intel doesn't have too far to drop in comparison. Intel does well in any type of recession economy I believe, but we are far away from that type of economy. The worse evil right now, is not moving fast enough. Intel was smart to move fast in 1997 and 1998. So, far the worse evil would be to not participate. But, when will this market have a pullback and how much? I wonder what we will be saying a year from today? Amy J