To: Vitas who wrote (34972 ) 12/10/1999 12:22:00 PM From: Eric Wells Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 99985
because TA is all about following what a stock actually does Vitas - you bring up some interesting points on TA. I do not do any "real" technical analysis myself. But I've recently begun to ponder an idea regarding technical analysis on which I would be interested in getting your feedback as well as the feedback of other TA experts on this thread. It appears that TA is used in an attempt to spot trends or potential changes in trends of stocks (or various indexes) in an effort to predict the future. But if enough people do TA, I start to wonder how much of TA's predictive powers start to become collaborative or collusive. For example, if you have 100 TA investors looking at a chart for YHOO, they might all come to the same conclusion (assuming they all practice TA in a similar manner) - that YHOO is on an upward trend - and as such, all 100 investors may do the same thing - buy YHOO. And this is all accomplished without the investors communicating with one another - they are in effect, collaborating (or colluding - you choose the verb) in the purchase of YHOO. If one were to try to apply this notion to explain what is happening in the market today, you would run into a potential roadblock in that it could be argued that most investors don't do TA. But isn't it possible for an investor that doesn't do TA to rely on the advice of or to follow the actions of other investors or analysts that do TA? If everyone is somehow tied into doing TA in a similar fashion (whether doing it directly or by listening to or following someone who does), is it not similar to all investors getting on a conference call in the morning before market open and saying "Okay, what are we all going to buy today - which stocks are going to win"? And as such, the stocks that have been going up, continue to go up (their prices bearing no relation to the profit making potential of the companies they represent). I'm not saying that I believe that this is what TA is all about - but I have pondered the idea. And I don't mean this post to be seen as a disparaging comment on TA - in truth, my position on TA is neutral (I don't know enough about it to have a position). And the idea I present here may be no more than "taking TA to an extreme" - an extreme that is far from reality. Anyway, I would be interested in getting your views, and the views of others. Is TA a predictive tool - or is it really just a tool that allows investors to collaborate without actually communicating with one another? Thanks, -Eric Wells