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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (35274)	12/10/1999 12:57:00 AM
From: The Duke of URL©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Are you familiar with Vinod Valloppillil's memo, sometimes referred to as the "Halloween II" memo? Do you have any comments about its analysis? If you don't have a linc to it, let me know. TIA Duke

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (35274)	12/10/1999 1:47:00 AM
From: ProDeath	Respond to of 74651

Possible reasons for software vendors to deliver on Linux: 1. Growth potential - if you believe Linux will grow, then there will be customers. The trendline for linux is growth, and there is plenty of room. 2. Improved competitive environment - If you are successful, you do not run the risk of being attacked in every possible fashion by MS or having MS introduce a competing product that will crowd you out. A good example of the latter is Access, which is definitely a boom-box product ( fifty knobs, fifty lights, fifty cents ) and is functionally a crippled POS, but nonetheless pretty much destroyed competition in desktop databases and query tools due to Access being bundled with Office. The initial purchase price of the OS is not the only value for a software company. The ongoing value is the support/license renewal/upgrade revenue, related product sales, and the size of market share. Keep in mind that Windows doesn't go for much at OEM prices. The real point with respect to an OS is that the OS should be commodity, cheap, open, and work well. Welcome to a new paradigm. I find the situation today very reminiscent of that with IBM about 10-15 years ago. At that time you had unix vendors and MS as the upstart kids who was exploring what could be done with new approaches on new technology, and IBM, the smelly old fart in a 3 piece suit who was resting on aged technology architectures and feeding FUD to a captive customer base. IBM lost mind share and customers moved on to do their work on platforms that IBM didn't gain revenue from until long after the new players became established. Goodbye AS400, hello Sun server. Goodbye 3270 terminal, hello desktop PC. and so on. Today, MS is the smelly old fart stuck on keeping its installed base in a product that has lost mind share like crazy due to Cost of Ownership and quality issues. There is no indication that MS believes it need do more than lip service to quality, and the costs of its customers are its revenues, and thus MS is trapped into keeping those costs as high as possible in order to meet its shareholders growth expectations. Goodbye Windows PC, hello network computer. Goodbye proprietary Wintel development tools, hello Java. The one thing that I have found constant in 20 years in the computing technology field is change, and change is always good. That which is occuring with Linux right now is change for the better, and opportunity for software companies.