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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (9250)	12/10/1999 4:34:00 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78570

Oh most definitely these stocks can and may go lower. Just looking at some of my recent stock buys - ABS,JCP,NSI,FMO,BLOCA, J, LTV, TFX, NWLIA, NC, GPC ==whew! that's a lot==they are all down from my recent buy points and may decline even further too. I don't foresee a "disaster" ala TYC with any of them though-- there's really no crisis issues out there that I can see (but...who knows?). Nevertheless, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see money being pulled from these stocks and they drift lower and lower. We have different goals and styles possibly. I'm not trying to keep ahead this year by avoiding stocks that continue to go lower. It makes no serious difference to me if these stocks decline further. I would want(if I don't lose confidence) to continue to add to positions as these stocks decline. The positions I post on that I indicate are initial positions are often exploratory -- small amounts that serve as an anchor point for me. (WM, for example) All I can say is 2 years from now I expect (or have some belief or hope)that every one of these stocks will be trading at least 50% higher from my buy point (except maybe JCP where it might only just get back to my 1st buy point). Generally, when I believe that about a stock, I buy. That's an entry point for me. You've made me consider an assumption I have with my portfolios. I do not actually know what is powering them, and I see that I should. Especially given that I am so diversified. I know from the Schedule D records I'm keeping that the profits (realized gains) I am taking in 1999 are predominantly from stocks bought in earlier years, 1996-1998. (This seems typical for me.) But I am just assuming that the value stocks that I've bought in prior years are also fueling the portfolios in this current year (the unrealized gains). Further, I am overlaying that assumption on another assumption: that the important thing for me is where these recent stocks picks will be in 1-2 years and not their shorter term activity. Paul