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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ivano who wrote (16504)	12/10/1999 10:58:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . . . On Shorting Linux Mania: As we discussed, shorting the gap on LNUX [@ 260], RHAT [@ 290] and CORL [@45] would have been the correct move so far. . . this mania is over. . . money is looking for the next mania. . .though much will be blown at Bloomies. CORL around 38 here. . .[still great short op]. . .LNUX near 230. . .I am sure we will see CORL close in the 20's today [Short $45/cover $22.50 = 100% single day gain!! Hello?] and back to teens next week. . . .where I would consider being a buyer again. . . . and LNUX like I said pre-market, will close under $200. . . not interested in being a buyer at all. The only one I would not short here [or ever] is RHAT. . . because it will continue to get the benefit of mutual fund investment. Both CORL and LNUX are the safe short plays, IMO. . .with CORL being the best of the lot. . . remember, the Canadian shorts are going to be all over this one. . .and they never lose. . . regardless of volume. Nearly all Linux plays gapped up and are trading significantly lower. PERL is the exception. . .as it is still "in play". . . what many short-sellers have not yet figured out . . .is that the more volume you bring to the stock by continuous flow of short & cover, the more attention you draw to the stock on volume alerts, which is the primary alert to daytraders. . . so rather than get the thing to go down . . . you catch yourself in a squeeze play every time. If you are going to short a trend/mania play, it is more profitable to do it in stealth, in my opinion. . . .higher percentages. If I were shorting Linux plays this morning, I would have singled out the weakly looking one. . . . . . thus, shorting SFTW at the gap around 11 1/4 would have yielded 37% in exactly 1 hour with minimal risk and no attention. Take the morning off and re-short the afternoon high. No muss. . no fuss. By comparison, PERL is a volume leader today. . . and the momentum the past hour has been UP, not down. And with a 3.2 mil float, double the float by 10:45am. . . my guess is that at the current volume rate, by 1pm, we should see a drying up of all legit short shares, leaving only naked ones. . . and the stock will have to run NORTH before sufficient shares are shaken to continue with the current rate of volume. Now with a 3.2 mil float. . .the thing has a good chance of running HIGHER than the gap up. . . perhaps to $35. . . before the tug-of-war resumes with the increase of borrowed shorts. . . Honestly, I would be very surprised to see PERL end the day in the red. And if I were to see it around $25 again this morning, I would be inclined to jump in long for the run to well up over $30. Seems like a no-brainer. So there seems to be two types of shorting plays that occur. . . the popular ones and the profitable ones. Take a guess which one I would pick every single time. Rande Is

To: Ivano who wrote (16504)	12/10/1999 12:29:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 57584

Oops, made a mistake selling some this morning. Everything back up. Should have been buying on the dip. My limit buys were in too low. Missed some great buying ops. Oh well, there will be others. Doesn't pay to lose faith in this market. On the other hand, if you've got a large profit, nothing wrong with taking it. I'm also learning to ignore tax concerns. Missed out on some high sell ops by wanting to put off taxes a year. could have traded in and out instead and doubled my profits. (ANF a perfect example trading between 29 and 32). I have done it on some issues though, traded in and out of PSFT between 18 1/2 and 21 three times recently. Former Y2K stocks flying today. IMRS dipped. Might be a great buy for a quick 20%.