To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (53492 ) 12/10/1999 4:31:00 PM From: Ruffian Respond to of 152472
Wireless Data: Sell It Or Lose All By Ed Lopez A new study suggests that wireless carriers are approaching a Darwinian divide that will winnow winners from also-rans. The process of natural selection will be based on how well carriers package and market wireless data, according to Datacomm Research Co. “Some carriers will either succeed in selling wireless data or go out of business,” the firm's study states. Not surprisingly, not everyone agrees with this assessment. The report argues, however, that with multiple carriers in some markets competing for customers, it will be increasingly difficult to make money in voice services. That makes a compelling case for wireless data as a differentiator and a source of added revenue. Traditional business models also are at risk in the fast-moving e-commerce arena, where some companies are using advertising and “tolls” as substitutes for traditional markups. “Virtually all businesses must at least plan to adopt radically new business models,” the report states. “Portable device makers may need to sell their platforms at cost or below cost to ensure a future revenue stream for add-on hardware, software or content. Wireless operators may need to offer free service and focus on generating advertising revenue or e-commerce commissions.” These frank, no-nonsense assessments arrive at a time of optimistic projections for wireless data services and handset sales. Combined shipments of smart phones and personal digital assistants will reach 350 million by 2003, the report estimates. “Smart phones will grab nearly 90 percent of mobile phone sales within five years,” says Datacomm President Ira Brodsky. Brodsky cautions that smart phones must be affordable, easy to use and perform basic functions very well. The Nokia 9000 Communicator, at more than $1,000, is described as a trade show novelty rather than a trendsetter because it's expensive and tries to meet the needs of all users. “There's a tendency to believe that the company or companies with the best technology win, or that technology doesn't matter because it's all marketing,” Brodsky says. “Neither of them is true.” Brodsky's optimism is in sharp contrast to the views of Stewart Alsop, a writer for Fortune whose latest column is titled “What a Wonderful, Wonderful Wireless World–In Your Dreams.” Alsop says wireless technologies tend to produce devices that are expensive, slow and “chew up batteries like candy.” Wireless data from a Palm VII is cool at first, he says, but gets old fast. And many wireless phone users are still bedeviled by such basic problems as frequently dropped calls. Brodsky agrees that smart phones won't achieve their full potential until they can access the entire Internet and not just specially formatted sites. “If someone develops a good way to translate the content of most existing pages,” Brodsky says, “it should be very successful.”