To: clochard who wrote (79196 ) 12/10/1999 4:17:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Respond to of 86076
again, from the BEARX board: A little bit of old-school experience Posted By: DieQQQ <Die@qqq.com> Date: Friday, 12/10/99, at 3:08 p.m. ..suggest that... "If one fact is glaringly clear in stock market history, it is that a new-issues craze is always the last stage of a dangerous boom - a warning of impending disaster almost as infallible as Cheyne-Stokes breathing is a warning of impending death." John Brooks, The Go-Go Years, 1973 and that... "When a Bull Market get under way, and once you have reached a point where everybody has made money no matter what system he or she followed, a crowd is attracted to a game that is not responding to interest rates and profits, but simply to the fact that it seems to be a mistake to be out of stocks. In effect, these people super-impose and "I-can't-miss-the-party" factor on top of fundamental factors that drive the market. Like Pavlov's dog, these investors learn that when the bell rings - in this case, the one that opens the New York Stock Exchange at 9:30 A.M. - they get fed." Warren Buffet, Fortune Magazine 11/99 "It's crazy to be out of stocks!" Patrick Ewing, on an interview with stock market "Goddess" (soon to be unemployed) Maria Bartiromo at the NYSE this week. All respect to Mr. Ewing (who is wise to say he is conservative), but thanks for giving us the sign. Mr. Buffet's rare article on Wall Street, although obviously avoiding the "bear market coming" approach is his way of warning investors that they are headed for trouble. To put it off, like the "Stuarts" and Abby Cohens of the market would do, as the ramblings of an old geezer, unfortunately would be a big mistake. Most of us bears suffer from a symptom of being too early. Since our tools of analysis are backed-up by historical data that ranges in periods of weeks months and years, we must adhere to the "time" parameters of that original analysis. Patience, Patience and more Patience. History is on our side, while the speculation of the future (technology) is on the side of bulls. If we are wrong, we have erred on the correct side. And after all, if the bulls are right, then we will have a tremendous future. This whole thing is about a fight between Technology (the future) and History. I for one, have a million dollars bet History wins. Any one care to join me? "There are people who believe that [technology and globalization have repealed the business cylce], and it may turn out that that's true. But there is another possibility, which is that all of human history may turn out to be true instead. And you just have to decide which is more likely." Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, on Newsweek 12/99.