To: ggamer who wrote (53500 ) 12/10/1999 4:27:00 PM From: Ruffian Respond to of 152472
Nokia's Rising Tide Lifts All Boats By Monica Alleven Nokia's extra-bullish outlook for its handset business, outlined at an analyst meeting Dec. 3, lit up a flickering wireless stock sector. Nokia, the leading maker of wireless phones, says it can reach net sales growth of 30 percent to 40 percent in 2000, exceeding its previous target of 25 percent to 35 percent. It also expects the global number of subscribers to reach 1 billion by the end of 2002, a year earlier than previously thought. The company's projections– traditionally taken seriously by analysts–helped push Nokia shares up, and shares in rivals Motorola Inc. and Ericsson also rose as Wall Street essentially agreed the wireless tide would continue to ascend. While these stocks aren't as hot as some others in the wireless carrier and equipment sectors, the boost came as a well-publicized report suggested wireless phones could affect memory loss. As with past warnings on possible wireless health effects, Wall Street appeared unconcerned. Meanwhile, the market roared with lofty expectations. Nokia's analyst meeting, which included a visit to Dallas by Helsinki, Finland-based Nokia Chairman and CEO Jorma Ollila, succeeded in fueling the frenzy. “Overall, the meeting was very bullish–from an industry perspective and also management's opinion of Nokia's participation in the industry,” says Legg Mason analyst Brad Williams. Anytime the overall outlook improves, “it's good for everybody.” While nearly every handset manufacturer is drunk with holiday demand and surging subscriber growth–driven in part by competition and more consumer-friendly price plans–Nokia has been stealing the show. Its ascent was fast. In 1997, Motorola held 24 percent U.S. market share while Nokia had only 19 percent and Ericsson had 15 percent. In 1998, Nokia bumped up its market share to 30 percent, while Motorola held onto 23 percent and Ericsson fell to 11 percent, according to the Yankee Group in Boston. Today, Wall Street views Nokia as a market leader. Two years ago, Nokia traded around $25 per share. This month, shares were in the $150-$156 range, and after a stock split in April optimistic investors now spread rumors that another split could be forthcoming. In Europe, Nokia overtook Deutsche Telekom AG as Europe's second-largest company based on market value. Indeed, Nokia has a lot going for it. The company expects its first third-generation network order will come in 2000. It hasn't said where that order will be installed, but the first 3G deployments are expected in Japan in 2001. The company has a comprehensive line of phones, many geared to the mass market. And on the marketing side, Nokia will put its name in front of more potential investors once again as chief sponsor of the Sugar Bowl. If bullish analysts have any concerns about Nokia, it's in gross margins. Yet even that doesn't threaten to knock Nokia off its pedestal. The infrastructure group has not been a stunner, but analysts suspect Nokia's handset business could pick up the slack. “Their strength is handsets,” says Hambrecht & Quist analyst Ed Snyder. “I think [handset] margins could go up.” Handset margins tend to slide in the fourth quarter because consumers buy cheaper phones. But because demand is so great and other manufacturers–namely, Motorola–are grappling with components shortages, that could spell better margins for Nokia this quarter. Many manufacturers have been caught off guard by the spectacular demand for digital wireless phones. Nokia's management historically has been one of the most accurate in its forecasts, Snyder says. As wireless Internet and data applications emerge, 1 billion by 2002 could be a cinch.