To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30047 ) 12/12/1999 1:33:00 AM From: fuzzymath Respond to of 50167
Thanks, IQBAL, for the detailed explanation offered to a newcomer! I won't be able to respond to everything you wrote right now, but I'll try to begin at least. First, let me say that we are trading in entirely different realms. My methods assume you have to decide on Monday whether or not you'll be in the market on Tuesday, and if you choose to be in, there's no getting out until the end of the day. In other words, it's "I'm in" or "I'm out" for the entire next day. I made the models this way because a long history of end of day prices was available from the NYSE, and because that was the only way I could trade for many years. I was trading profit sharing money in a Fidelity account, where you get in or out at the end-of-day price. So--my methods assume you have much less trading flexibility than when you have your own personal trading account, where you can buy and sell at any time of the day. "IDEA OF THE DAY" attracted me because at the end of each day, I have to formulate my "idea" for the next day: up or down. Now, to your comments. Do you mean that your method is criticized for the "inadequacy of its intellectual basis"? To anyone who made that criticism, the obvious answer is if it works over time, then it works! August-October 1998 blew away many novice investors who made great profits in markets that gained 30% per year. Sure, you could have rolled dice and likely come out nicely ahead in those markets. But now we're facing different markets. Here's what I can tell you based on my models: if you survived (or perhaps profited) during the 1998 "correction" and the recent 13% downturn (NYSE index), then your method is ready for a real bear market. I lost very little during both of these downturns. That, I think, is the greatest strength of my methods--they avoid the dips, but still take in the big gains. Well, as I said, it will take me time to respond to your entire message. This is a start. One last note: trading on equations can work: the "program" trading between the futures and stock markets is essentially trading using mathematical equations. It's a formula. I know, this is a kind of unique thing, because you're trading two related markets that have (for whatever reason) become unbalanced--but still, it's an example. I have to go (terrible amount of work brought home that has to be done by monday). But I will respond in full to everything you told me. Thanks! Kevin