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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDinBaltimore who wrote (30049)	12/12/1999 1:58:00 AM
From: fuzzymath	Respond to of 50167

The problem you're trying to solve sounds much more complex than anything I've ever attempted. I don't know that I have any suggestions to offer. After the '87 crash I came up with a method that used mathematics, but also required very good trading on my part (looking at the offer and ask prices for a group of 20 stocks). If I could buy at 20 1/8, my method might consider it a good deal, but if I had to buy at 20 1/4, then no. I was buying and selling conservative utilities, looking for gains in the range of 3/8 for a $25 stock. At that time I was able to follow the markets during the day and had access to a good quotation service. I actually made 35% in one year trading stocks that remained within an 8% range over the course of the year. It was then that I recognized that you could apply mathematical methods to enhance trading profits. My big problem is that I have never had enough money for my investing to affect my life situation in a major way. Who cares if you make 35% trading $20,000? How's that going to change your life? Now, if you had $1,000,000 and made 35%, now that's a different situation entirely. You're studying something that is indeed very complex. Market turns are especially difficult. You and IKE are looking at daily patterns, while I look at only patterns of end-of-day prices. But I can still understand what you're saying about "false" or "fake" move indicators. That's why I have my Yellow "Cautious" indicator. It's when the market's doing something that doesn't quite seem in line with either a nice upward move or a downward move that should be avoided at any cost. I usually sit on the sidelines if my indicator is Yellow. And since I don't sell short (I can't do that with my company profit-sharing and 401k money), I'm also on the sidelines when my light is Red. Very interesting post, JDin. Very thought-provoking for someone like me who thinks in terms of "models" and "matrices" and volatility (VIX). Kevin