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To: Sam who wrote (1427)12/13/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1487
 
Sam, it's crazy. But, it's the current mind set of the investing public. It's interesting to keep hearing the talking heads posting the same stuff despite the seemingly unrelated nature of what's going on. Transports??? Even the Dow is a question mark. They added Microsoft and Intel to re-adjust it a little to the market.

Let's face it, people are buying growth. My father owns Ford and GM. I've asked him why for 2 years. In the end, it's all he understands. So, I'm cool and with it because I own tech stocks, but why have I missed these blazing stocks??? It's because it takes so long to change what you know.

So, I have to change what I know. I begin to see there's absolutely a fundmental change that these new companies are ushering in. Look at Dell today, and then think of 1990 and wonder if they could ever have created a model with 7 days inventory, and go quarter after quarter with no hitches? Could you see them become the #1 computer vendor with out a single computer at a store?

Now, look at the future and see the online market dropping prices of everything we, and companies, buy from 2 to 25%. Streamlining supply so that we spend less moving it around and a big chunk of stock that was sitting there getting old will no longer be built before we need it. We'll be getting twice as much done in half the time.

What are these things worth? Can owning these stocks that change the world be good investments? Just saw an analyst suggest Phone.com would have 209% revenue increase for 2000 with $41 million in revenues. 2001 he suggests 69 million. Well, this is not an amazing revenue story for a company that has shot to 10+ billion in market cap. But, you know if they were bought, they'd go for billions because they are just too important to the whole tech road map.

But, in the end stock price is all happy horse shit anyway you look at it. People buy stocks to get rich. Anything that makes them think they can do that causes the supply demand change that makes a stock move. There is no under lying value in a stock. So, a good story seems to be as strong a thing that any company could have to create a good rise on the stock market.

Regards,

Mark