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Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (10009)	12/12/1999 4:47:00 AM
From: Hans U. Tschanz	Respond to of 12475

WEEKAHEAD-India shares seen ranged, watching funds By Sudhir Shetty BOMBAY, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Indian shares are seen ranged this this week, ahead of the holiday season and Year 2000 (Y2K) concerns, but selective buying by speculators and foreign funds is likely, analysts said. ''It is difficult to take a call on the index, but a broad based rally is unlikely this week,'' said Abhay Aima, head of equities trading at HDFC Bank . While foreign fund support and the passage of the key insurance bill by lawmakers last week has kept spirits buoyant, market participants are unsure how long it will continue amid the Y2K uncertainty. ''At upper levels profit booking may arise on Y2K concerns and market perception that foreign funds will reduce activity in the second half of December,'' said an analyst with a foreign brokerage. But local speculators were likely to start accumulating stocks at lower levels in anticipation of a surge of foreign fund allocation in the new year, dealers said. Foreign funds followed up net purchases of $239.2 million of equities in November, by $149.30 million worth of buying from December 1-9. They were net sellers in the August-September period. Interest rates on carry forward transactions were about 32 percent on the weekend compared with 12 percent a month back, indicating a bullish undertone, dealers said. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY HOGS THE LIMELIGHT The benchmark 30-share Bombay exchange index (^BSESN - news) gained 1.58 percent or 74.33 points last week to end Friday at 4,788.47. Most of the activity was confined to the information technology sector where demand remained insatiable. Several software share prices have gained more than 80 percent in the past one month. But only two stocks --Infosys Technologies and NIIT are index constituents. Dealers said it was difficult to predict whether software stocks were ripe for a correction. ''The software story is very confusing, a beating is expected either next week or any time in December,'' said Jatin Sarvaiya managing director at Triumph International Finance India Ltd. FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO OTHER CYCLICAL STOCKS ''Some cyclical stocks started rising late last week and I see the trend continuing,'' Sarvaiya said. Cement, petrochemical and refinery stocks were among gainers in the latter half of the week. Consumer products maker Hindustan Lever Ltd , which has a 21 percent weightage in the Bombay exchange index, has also started looking up as fund managers talk of improving revenue prospects in the coming year. The movement in the stock will determine the index direction to a large extent, HDFC Bank's Aima said. His top stock picks are Larsen & Toubro and Grasim Industries in cement, Wockhardt in pharmaceuticals, Ashok Leyland in automobiles, BSES in power, a toss between Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd and Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd in telecommunications and Corporation Bank in banking.