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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (24552)	12/12/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 69832

Harry, here are the stocks you discuss in 5 year charts compared to SP500, for a sense of relative performance over same period: finance.yahoo.com Some of these techs almost look like occilators moving above and below the S&P. In every case one gets a feel for how its relative strength (to SP average, which has been strong). ORCL is most impressive for a big softward house (I added MSFT DELL and APPL just to broaden picture), while price/book and price/sales ratios on MERQ UNFY and ORTL are groundwork for some volatility. January/February performance on the group was low in the past, while their current prices are high.. it'll be interesting if these aren't better buys in March?

To: j g cordes who wrote (24552)	12/13/1999 4:20:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69832

Hi Jim, Interesting site on Mount Washington. Ouch, 8 degrees with the wind chill. Did you do McKinley too? I had the pleasure of hiking one of the local mountain with someone who had climbed McKinley. Starting an ascent at 3:00 AM in order to make the summit in the early afternoon so they could have enough light for the descent seems excessive. Staying the night on that mountain seems like a good way to lose one's life though. I'll add more to my original telecom post as I get time. This week is a busy one though. I agree that many of them have had great runs so far the last few years, so a pull back has a high probability of being in the cards. The orginal question I received asked about investing as opposed to trading, so the focus will be on stocks that can be bought and held for a multiple year period. Timing will be less of an issue therefore. Many are good trading stocks on the long side though, as the multi-year trend will be up. ************************* *********************** To: Joseph Pareti who wrote (93860) From: American Spirit Sunday, December 12, 1999 12:44 PM ET Reply # of 93886 WORLDWIDE CHIP SHORTAGE in 2000 - European Wall Street Journal last week had a big article about how chips will have to be rationaed next year due to a grave shortage. How this affects INTEL is unclear but it certainly cannot hurt their pricing ability. DD shortage is also reported on the horizon benefitting beaten-down DD stocks. I own HDD, MXTR and WDC which at at or near 52-week bottoms and have not participated in the tech rally at all. On the contrary. All said, it's not hard to see why beaten-down chip and DD stocks are values now for position traders. Sometime soon when these shortages become more publicly known these stocks could appreciate mightily. At 34 PE I don't see the risk in INTC here. And they will get the positive publicity once 2000 rolls around and they bring out their new faster chips. ************************* *************************** Counter point: Exerpt Wall Street Journal: SEG, has equity position in Veritis: Be forewarned. Buying shares in companies with valuable equity holdings in other firms can be frustrating. Just look at Seagate Technology, the disc-drive company that owns a sizable stake in Veritas Software. Seagate, which closed Friday at 38 13/16 after falling a point last week, has a stake in Veritas worth $10 billion, or $45 per Seagate share. Seagate also has other equity stakes and cash worth $10 a share, plus interests in some potentially valuable private companies. And Seagate has a marginally profitable disc-drive business that could be worth another $20 a share. This all adds up to $75, nearly double Seagate's current price. Since Seagate was highlighted recently in Barron's (The Trader, November 20), it has barely budged, while Veritas has gained 12 points. As one reader said: "Every time you guys in Barron's highlight one of these situations, the right move has been to go out and buy the high-priced stock, not the cheaper one." Veritas may be getting a boost amid speculation that it will soon be added to the S&P 500. The company now is the largest component of the S&P 400 mid-cap index, a breeding ground for stocks that later are promoted to the S&P 500. Harry