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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (56755)	12/12/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 95453

George, you make and excellent point, as now, clearly, tech stocks are sucking the capital life blood out of almost everything. However, I am not ready to quite throw in the towel on oil and oil related issues for the immediate future. Crude is knocking on a very important door here. Very important. Take a look at the monthly crude chart, if you please: futures.tradingcharts.com $25 is last gasp resistance before a gimmie to the low $30's. This is one strong looking chart. Yes, crude was thrown back at 27. It rallied back to hold +25. Once crude stays over 25 for any length of time, (i'm talking a week or two) the rally to the 30's begins in earnest. Guess what happens after that? 25 becomes MAJOR SUPPORT. That will put a stake in the heart of the sustainability bears, period. It's going to fun listening to Doomberg talk about the "New Reality" of $25 oil, as oil then assaults Wolanchuks 40. <g> At that point, imo, the patch gets downright "sexy", as even the densest tech bull will begin to see the massive earnings coming the patches way. But still, holding 25ish here is crucial. I'm thinking it has a chance, as is it is now almost a universally held, that oil must decline to a more "reasonable" level. I mean, the words used are INEVITABLE. And don't forget all these posts we've been reading on the threads recently. Many of them are of the "Death of the Patch" variety. hdrjr's (not to single him out) is a case in point. Almost as good as Geiche's "Dinosaur Industry" post before GLBL almost tripled. A lot of fine and intelligent people throwing in the towel. Please post the "Death of the Patch" article when you find it. But don't be surprised if it comes from your favorite analyst. <g> You are quite good at sniffing out those bottom articles as I recall. <g> IMO the Patch is far closer to a bottom than it is to a top. Techs are far closer to a top than they are to a bottom. BTW the minimum capex increases from the E&P's has been 20%, I repeat TWENTY PERCENT. Shell Canada as the first major integrated to report capex (well over 20%), leads me to believe Wall Street may be in for a capex surprise. Last but not least, even with recent 2 dollar crude sell off, crude futures are still heavily backwardized, indicating very TIGHT supplies. You know, give me my crude and give it to me now, cause I'll have to pay more tmw. By definition, inflation psycology starts in the pits. JMVVHO - FWIW - BWDIK - VBG Bull