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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (35081)	12/12/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

See my last post on my Board at my site but I just finally got around to laoding up all the B2B charts and that is where all teh money is going. 1998 was the year of internets and 1999 is B2B which will end the same. They will go up more than we think (maybe already there but maybe not) then the top will come and they will be slaughtered like the nuts were finally settling down like the surviving net stocks while others will go into oblivion like the smaller nets did. What I find amazing is people falling for the same tricks again. IBM has been in e-commerce since before any of these newcomers yet they just warned. If they aren't making a ton of money from it, what are the chances of these smaller ones making anything? CPWR, CA CSC etc all are trading down being viewed as Y2K plays yet they are more into B2B than the B2B hype plays. Of course they have established earnings so they can't be hyped as it is too easy to see that it is all hype and no substance. As for the government playing along with the scheme, I actually could argue FOR the market in this regard. I was mulling this over and put it in the perspective of management. At least my view of managing my sections is that I give them what they need and fix any external problems that are blocking thier ability to do their job, give them a bit of direction to keep them pointed in the right direction then let them do what they will as long as it is progressive. The market comes up with new innovations and technology. If Asia collapses, the government lowers rates to tide them over and allow Asia to export their way out of trouble providing for a future market for our products. If Y2K fears are threatening to slow down the economy, the govt. provides added liquidity to keep the market flying, making people feel rich so they keep spending. This keeps companies operating. Yes it is a ponzai scheme and it will end badly. The problem is that the government's job is to keep it going as long as possible before the house of cards comes crumbling down. The problem is figuring out the when. The bubble will continue to increase until it finally pops but no one knows how big it can get before it bursts. I felt that we would trade flat and NOT have a BK for the last few years. I thought we could stay flat to slightly down until earnings caught up with the astronomical PEs. I no longer think this is possible. The last push up in the NASDAQ has just gone too high. I unfortunately feel that now it can only end badly but still am not sure when it will all end. Good Luck, Lee