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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: biowa who wrote (7286)	12/12/1999 8:37:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9719

Some relevant lessons here perhaps from my last few years of biotech investing: 1. It is often a big mistake to not invest in the first drug on the scene because the "better" replacement is on its way RSN. ("Real Soon Now" for any non-geeks among us). For example, I didn't ever buy QLTI because the PCYC stuff appeared to me to be clearly better. I shied away from IMNX and Enbrel because I held CNTO and thought Remicade would be, if not better, at least comparable. I didn't buy IDEC early enough, partly because I held some CLTR, and mistakenly thought that would be a reasonable proxy. 2. Things happen in slow motion out in the real world. I rushed to buy CELG when the first MM study came out. The purchase worked out very well indeed, but it turns out I had a lot of time. It is only now, nearly a year later, that Thal is just starting to see some real growth. You could have bought CELG under $20 as late as September. Trying to learn from my mistakes, I now own some IDPH as well as CLTR. Clearly Rituxan's growth is a long way from done, and even if Zev is a total dud and Bex is as good as we hope, it will be a long time before Bex has a significant impact on Rituxan's sales. (Still can't bring myself to buy QLTI though). True, "patient empowerment" is a much more significant factor that it used to be, but in the field of oncology it is still the doctor that has to be convinced. Not many patients will successfully demand Bex in the face of resistance from their oncologist. Peter