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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (87171)12/12/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
William re: 'that is how currencies work' -- Japan runs a very long-standing trade surplus with the US which leaves a residual called foreign investment. If the Japanese decide to reduce their US holdings they sell dollars. Let's stop and ask for a moment about what would happen if the Europeans did not buy as many dollars as the Japanese -- which is what you now seem to be saying. The pressure sales of US treasuries would have one very certain effect -- they would drive up interest rates dramatically. We have seen a little increase -- nothing anybody would get too excited about however. And the short end of the curve has been pretty quiet. So if the Europeans did not offset these Japanese sales -- that leaves the Fed -- and it would contribute to answering the question of why US money supply has been 'exploding'. If, on the other hand, Europeans have been buying enough dollars to neutralize Japanese sales, or if Japanese sales have been much smaller thatn indicated by currency movements -- well, then you really have to ask yourself, what is going on that would account for adding an addition $196 billion to US money supply over the last few months.