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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (7289)	12/13/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: Bob L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

<CLTR has been a dog this year because management blew the BLA filing not because Bex isn't a major advancement in NHL. > But IDPH also did much better after Rit reached the market than many of us thought it would. Even if the Bex BLA were on track, IDPH would still be looking pretty good right now, I think.

To: Vector1 who wrote (7289)	12/13/1999 11:40:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

V1, biowa, etc: Just to clarify a couple of points: I'm not saying my buying and holding PCYC was a mistake - it's done very nicely this last year. My mistake was not also buying QLTI. My CELG example was just meant to illustrate the different time scales involved here: 1. There's daytrader time - people see "cancer" and a news release and buy and sell the pop. Essentially irrelevant to most of us. 2. There's SI time - smart people here can see a study and conclude that the drug will in the long term likely do great/terribly. That's sort of where we are now with Bex, or where we were early this year with Thal. 3. There's analyst time. Somewhere between 2. and 5. below. This of course is the significant gap from a stock-picking/timing viewpoint. 4. There's FDA time. Various studies have attempted to show that the "right" time (from a risk adjusted perspective) to buy a stock is after Phase N, or after FDA approval or whatever. I'm not sure I've ever been convinced by any of these studies. 5. There's market acceptance time. The first two quarters after acceptance have often been a big opportunity for shorts, as sales sometimes don't live up to inflated expectations. Sometimes, of course things just go great (MEDI). Some drugs just build and build (Avonex), build and collapse (Tobi from PGNS), stagnate (Renagel - but this one is still an open question IMO), start slow and then gather strength (Xopenex). The analysts are generally much more on the ball at this stage. Just trying to make more explicit what most biotech investors already mostly know but haven't articulated... Also trying to learn from my mistakes - unfortunately Nederhoffer was right when he said something like: "I never make the same mistake twice. I just make one of its several thousand near relatives instead." Peter