Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (71825)	12/13/1999 9:47:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

the large funds were raising cash the last two weeks, noted by the heavy volume afr.com.au this was posted at start of last week. a dropoff in volume may start this week. a relief rally, not unlike the euro rally in January 99, may occur in early January.

To: valueminded who wrote (71825)	12/13/1999 9:49:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Chris, though I have some sympathy with the mid-Jan argument, hence setting back my put loading time, I have to wonder how much more can be added to the recent excesses, especially in reaction to brain dead internet IPOs. Internet sales are cheaper because of the eyeballs game. E Commerce cos. figure they lose money, and they are, on sales of goods if they get the traffic flow. Traffic flow allows them to advertise their eyeballs to other E commerce retailers. I think this is faulty logic. If nobody makes money, the advertising money eventually either dries up or becomes all barter.

To: valueminded who wrote (71825)	12/13/1999 10:46:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Chris, I don't recall who said it but Central Banks can print them selves into trouble but they cannot print their way out of it. ho ho ho The big untold story about this bubble is the unprecedented leverage of the real economy DEBT . If you allow debt to grow faster than income indefinitely you will default. If you voluntarily curtail your consumption binge then the economy loses the stimulus of debt fueled consumption. The modern economists make it more difficult than it has to be. Academia is very effective at programing their economic students into accepting what they are taught. I suspect the deflationists are a minority and many do expect stagflation but I believe there is a point when people become so over extended that they reduce their assumption of debt or default. It is a very simple proposition and i cannot understand how people can think it can end any other way. The big question is when do we reach that point. AG seems bent on finding that limit where ever it is. Money( credit) creation takes place largely through the origination of loans - you cannot force people to borrow if they do not want to - pushing on a string. I agree that the bubble continues until further notice. I expect severe tough love and economic violence. there is no alternative. mike