To: edamo who wrote (149152 ) 12/13/1999 3:13:00 PM From: Didi Respond to of 176387
For "edamo" from Takkahhwann on RG's DELL: "...Perception is a bad word that starts with a "p"! I know it exits in the market, but I rather it only exist among politicians. The link you provide points out that Edamo thinks M.D.is immune from dishing out stock rhetoric . Far from it. M.D. is a swift orator, and DELL's sharholder love-ins are nothing more than public displays. But his post should have even been more telling of DELL's problems. He states, "2/17/99 niles announcement dell at 82 1/2 (41 1/4 post split) 12/10/99 niles redux dell at 41 7/16 nice 3/16 move in 10 months!!!!" The analysts are a big part of DELL's problems. Is Niles against DELL? Do I suffer form paranoid delusions? His glaring omissions lead me to believe he has a beef with DELL. Niles' two DELL announcements were separated by 3/16 move, yet DELL grew by an average of 40% each quarter this year. DELL's est. next year growth is still around 38%. Why did Niles not point out the obvious- Continued growth, no stock movement, equals a much lowered P/E, and a highly attractive PEG!!!!! Bad journalism, bad analysis of the situation. Compared with the estimated growth of a CSCO; SUNW; ORCL; DELL, even with the "perception" of a slowdown, has an est. higher growth rate, a lower P/E, a more attractive PEG, and a lower forward P/E. Yet look at the movement of the other stocks YTD!! Certainly Larry Ellison, with his MS bashing and "thin-client bullshiit", and McNealy, with his .com rhetoric "play the perception game", but the analysts have helped these stocks out to no end with upgrades and raised price targets, while out of the other end of their GI tract, speak about DELL being overvalued, and computer slowdowns. Where is the responsible analysis. The numbers do not lie!! In a post much earlier, I pointed out that the analysts seem to not like the way DELL makes its revenues. They fall over themselves when they speak of 30% of GTW's revenues coming from "out of the box". Big deal. GTW now has a P/E of 50, with not nearly the estimated growth of DELL. Did not stop Barrons from calling for a one year price target of 140. Rediculous. I will not even mention the Amazon's, the RHAT's, the VA linux of the world, or the moron analyst who called for a 360 dollar price target for va linux. The analysts are dopes, but investors listen to them. They have been an instumental part of DELL's problems. DELL's problems begin when they consistently miss estimates, or screw up the way CPQ did..." ragingbull.com