To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (45945 ) 12/14/1999 6:51:00 AM From: Alex Respond to of 116779
Hard to find an economic explanation that has real currency by ANDREW SMITHERS Chairman of fund manager advisers Smithers & Co It is almost as if the millennium is affecting exchange rates. The euro-dollar rate is approaching one to one and the euro-yen and dollar-yen rates one to 100. It is bizarre that both currencies and the calendar should be converging on round numbers, but it is probably without rhyme or reason. When writing the Decline and Fall of Practically Everybody, Will Cuppy remarked that he had forgotten exactly why Rome fell: 'It was probably just one of those things. Gibbon has discussed the matter at sufficient length, to put it mildly.' There is a good case for treating explanations of currency movements with the same scepticism. The most common has been to connect the strength of economies with that of currencies. This looked unreasonable before Japan said third-quarter gross domestic product had fallen. As the yen has been the strongest currency, this view is now clearly absurd. Another bunch of explanations, which depend on the comments of European politicians, gets sillier as the euro falls. Since these politicians do not understand the benefits a weak euro brings, their comments are best seen as symptoms, rather than causes, of the euro's weakness. The least bad explanation comes from Nobel Prize winner Professor Robert Mundell. Among his claims to economic fame is the Mundell/Fleming Model, which took the principle point of Keynsian economics and applied it to an open economy. Keynes' General Theory explained the causes of recessions and how to deal with them. It applied, however, to economies in which overseas trade was not important. As world trade becomes more important, so do Mundell's ideas. According to his theory, increasing budget deficits do not necessarily cause economies to pick up as Keynes' theories hold. Monetary policy must be easy as well. If governments increase budget deficits without easing monetary policy, their economies will start to pick up, but the recovery will push up the exchange rate. After a time lag, this will mean that the government stimulus will be offset by a fall in net exports. This fits both the euro and the yen. Euroland spent the past year cutting back on its budget deficits to meet the Maastricht requirements and Japan has had a huge increase in its deficit. If this is correct, the negative impact of tighter fiscal policy should be easing off in Europe and the weaker euro should be giving the economy an increasing boost. The strong yen, however, is a major problem for Japan. As the fall in third-quarter GDP shows, the stimulus from government spending is weakening and the economy is likely to slip back into recession if exports fall. At the current exchange rate, this will probably happen. ¸ Associated Newspapers Ltd., 14 December 1999 Terms and Conditions This Is London thisislondon.co.uk