Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (12725)	12/14/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

EXDS Revenues....1997-2000 Mike: Want to thank you so much for taking the time to help all of us who are numerically challenged. I tried to do a little table to better demonstrate revenue growth for Exodus Communications; it lists documented quarterly revenues, and the quarterly sequential growth (SG). I also estimated quarterly and annual revenues into FY 2000. I used the average quarterly SG of the first 3 qtrs in 1999 to get the 4th qtr SG rate of 47.6%, and applied that to get the 4th qtr 1999 revenue estimate of $99.8 million. To get the estimates for FY 2000, I took a very conservative quarterly SG of 40%. I fully expect EXDS to beat this in FY 2000, based both on the SG from the past 3 years, and on the accelerating tornado of website hosting now and in the near-term future. Revenues are in $Millions; 'e' represents estimated. 1997 1998 1999 2000e 1Qrev: 1.7 7.1 30.1 147.3 1QSG: 54.5% 44.9% 42.6% 2Qrev: 2.4 10.1 42.5 217.4 2QSG 41.2% 42.2% 41.2% 3Qrev: 3.4 14.5 67.6 320.8 3QSG: 41.7% 43.6% 59.0% 4Qrev: 4.9 21.1 99.8e 473.6 4QSG: 44.1% 45.5% 47.6%e Ave. Qtr SG: 45.4% 44% 47.6%e 40%e Annual Rev: 12.4 52.7 240e 1,159.1e Annual SG: 425% 455% 483% The FY 2000 revenue estimate by David Levy from H & Q of ~ $630 million looks to be way low, and would require the annual SG to decline to 262%, rather than the estimate of 483%, using the conservative quarterly SG rate of 40%. If the P/S ratio acknowledged by a slew of analysts should be about 25 or so, and if Exodus simply performs as expected and achieves the 12/2000 revs of $1.159 billion, then I calculate an expected share price of ~ $340. However, my honest expectations is that Exodus will exceed a 40% SG rate per quarter, because of my gut instinct that we are in the middle of a massive Ecommerce-website growth tornado; and because of the track record demonstrated above for the past 3 years. In the meantime, SSB has upgraded EXDS this morning to a price of $215/share, and I think a 2 for 1 split takes place after market close today. This morning, EXDS opened at $175. At the beginning of the month, it was ~ $107. Apollo