Doug: "the future technology ( 2 years )".
I posted this before for you but you may have missed it. I repost it.
What these Telco Carrier leaders tell me seems to differ significantly with your statement. What gives?
Message 12101010
TA
====================================
" The whole design of the Internet was ?IP over anything?--
IP over frame relay, IP over ATM, etc. Today,
however, the reverse is not true.
What we will see in the future is IP evolution
characterized by the merging of ATM with IP. This
new mode combines the best attributes of IP and
ATM. It will not look like the IP we see today; the
packet structure will be different, as will the
overhead structure. The merging of ATM and IP will
mirror what is presently happening in the transport
layer, where DWDM and SONET are merging. "
Marty Kaplan, chief technology officer, Sprint
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telecoms-mag.com
ATM Systems: What?s
Next?
Industry Insight
ATM is now a mature technology that has taken hold in service
provider backbones. Have we seen all its potential? Editor-in-Chief
Sue O?Keefe asked several service providers, analysts and vendors
about what the future holds for ATM. Here?s what they had to say:
Rick Malone, analyst, Vertical Systems
------------------------
With the advent of ?IP everywhere,? some in the
industry have declared ATM technology pass?.
Despite these pronouncements, ATM continues to
rapidly penetrate key segments of network
infrastructures. Since 1992, more than $9 billion has
been spent on ATM equipment worldwide. In 1999
alone, more than $4 billion will be spent on ATM
core switches, edge switches, campus switches and
access devices. The technology?s enduring appeal
can be attributed as much to frenzied network
build-out momentum as to its roster of benefits,
which include standards-based technology,
multimedia applications support, scalability to
multigigabit capacities, and QoS on a
per-application basis. In short, ATM has been
accepted as a proven technology for managing
bandwidth.
Public ATM services are just beginning to gain
momentum, despite generating 15 percent of the total
ATM market revenue. With port growth of more than
80 percent this year, ATM in the United States is
emerging as the preferred access service at speeds
above T1. The hottest area this year is ATM IMA--a
fractional T3 service--now offered by all the leading
ATM providers. The need to aggregate frame relay
traffic into central sites at T3 rates using frame
relay/ATM service interworking interfaces is also
driving ATM service growth. The ATM services
market will top $1 billion for the first time this year
and is projected to increase at a faster growth rate
than ATM equipment revenue through 2002.
The penetration of ATM equipment in the service
provider environment has been primarily as a core
technology to support subtending frame relay and IP
networks. We expect further penetration in the core
and edge as providers adopt MPLS to unite their
multiservice environments and implement dedicated
VPNs.
More than $300 million of ATM access devices will
be sold this year to enterprises and service providers
for connecting to ATM-based core switches. IMA,
service interworking, transparent LAN service and
voice/data convergence are the applications driving
the growth of this segment. ATM has also been
implemented in the leading DSLAMs to manage
traffic from multiple subscribers. Now, some service
providers are planning to support ATM to the
subscriber?s modem, making it possible for a user to
utilize the ATM signalling stacks that are already
built into Windows 98 and NT. Wide deployment of
xDSL could help extend ATM technology to sub T1
speeds at the network?s edge.
8888888888888888
Joe Skorupa, director of switching and routing, RHK
----------------------------
What happened to ATM? Just a few years ago, ATM
was crowned the ruler of all it surveyed. Now, many
people seem ready to relegate ATM to the dustbin of
history--an interesting curiosity, but ultimately of
little importance. However, if you look closer, the
corpse seems pretty lively.
ATM?s ability to guarantee the QoS of multiple
streams across a low-bandwidth link is driving
ATM?s adoption for xDSL networks, particularly for
G.Lite. If carrier rollout plans come together,
millions of ATM access lines will be installed in the
United States alone.
ILECs face scarcity of metropolitan fiber, driven
largely by the demand for DS3 and OC-3 links for
ISPs. Metro DWDM ring solutions are still rare,
making ATM-based virtual path (VP) very attractive.
These networks must carry voice, packet data and
private line traffic efficiently across a single
infrastructure. ATM?s QoS and statistical
multiplexing are driving ILECs and CLECs to deploy
VP rings. RHK expects this trend to accelerate.
While routers will anchor some large networks, such
as Qwest and Frontier, large ATM and hybrid
ATM/MPLS switches will also be common,
particularly among ILECs and IXCs. MCI
WorldCom plans to continue to offer ATM services
to customers that require very robust services and
Sprint?s ION is ATM-based. Even ?pure IP? carriers
such as Level 3 admit that they are building their
networks atop ATM while they wait for IP to evolve
into a more robust ATM-like protocol, probably
MPLS.
And don?t forget that outside the United States, ATM
is still preferred by many service providers, which
have been installing ATM equipment for the past five
years. Of course, as IP demand grows, ATM?s
long-term future (greater than five years) is less
clear. However, if you believe, as I do, that MPLS is
as much ATM as it is IP, ATM?s future looks even
brighter. So, where does this leave ATM? Right
where it should be: in carrier access and backbone
networks.
8888888888888888
Steve Vogelsang, senior director of strategic and
technical marketing, FORE Systems
--------------------------------------
Those who recall the marketing campaigns around
ATM in the early years will agree that we have not
yet experienced the marketed potential of ATM.
Marketers promised a world of high-quality data,
voice and video transmission across a global ATM
network with on-demand bandwidth and QoS to
every user. Unfortunately, the marketing promises
were premature by a few years and we are now just
beginning to feel the impact of ATM.
A few years ago, ATM found its place in carrier
networks as a highly available transport for emerging
services such as frame relay and the Internet. ATM is
now being used to construct the access networks on
which carriers offer converged services including
VPNs, Internet and public voice (PSTN). Its ability
to provision services using a familiar
connection-switching model over a packet
(cell)-switched fabric makes it an attractive and
practical technology for offering new
packet-switched services. By using ATM ?under the
covers? in the core transmission and access
networks, carriers have taken the first step in
delivering on the potential of ATM.
In the future ATM will serve as a catalyst in
delivering services with the ubiquitous connectivity,
low unit cost and flexible bandwidth of the Internet
as well as the guaranteed bandwidth, high
availability and usage-based billing of traditional
telecom services. ATM?s current position in the core
of the Internet is serving as the proving ground for
emerging technologies such as MPLS.
In the access network ATM is the foundation
upon which new IP-based services will be built,
including voice over IP, and services enabling
on-demand IP data and multimedia calls that leverage
the existing PSTN call model.
When ATM?s full potential is realized it will not be
the same ATM of days gone by. It will be a new
beast that combines the power of the Internet with the
stability of the PSTN.
8888888888888888
Dr. Kurt Reiss, director, core platforms and
services, InterNetworking Systems, Lucent
Technologies
-------------------------------------
Most service providers already have an ATM
network in place, so the next step is clear: Utilize the
existing ATM backbone to consolidate all
services--including voice, data, IP, private line and
wireless--onto this highly reliable and flexible
infrastructure. With a core ATM solution, service
providers can future-proof their networks and
deliver emerging services as they mature and ATM
continues to evolve to support them.
ATM provides the bandwidth and intelligence that
service providers need to deliver all
revenue-generating services--voice, data and
video--from a single network infrastructure.
High-capacity ATM switches also allow the
convergence of network layers, reducing equipment
costs and simplifying network operations. For
example, some ATM switches already have OC-48
optical interfaces allowing direct connection to the
optical layer.
The multiservice aggregation capabilities inherent in
ATM allow emerging services to be added to the
existing infrastructure, protecting it from
obsolescence. The intelligence of ATM networks
allows providers to rapidly provision new services
on the existing infrastructure, take advantage of QoS
benefits to bill customers based on service-priority
levels, and minimize costs.
Among the advances that will continue to develop in
ATM backbones is relief for the PSTN. The PSTN
was engineered to handle voice calls that typically
last three to five minutes, not Internet modem calls
that can last hours. This can create severe public
safety issues, such as critical 911 calls not getting
through. Data call offloading and voice over ATM
do not require forklift upgrades to implement,
preserving the benefits of billions of dollars in Class
5 switches deployed worldwide.
These types of features will prove that the
advantages offered by ATM today will continue to
provide the foundation and capacity to deliver the
services of the future.
8888888888888888
Rod Odom, president, BellSouth Business Systems
--------------------------------------------
ATM has rapidly become an integral part of service
provider backbones. We are just scratching the
surface of the potential of ATM and will witness a
significant number of changes within the next decade.
The standards for ATM are relatively mature, but the
actual hardware and implementation are still
progressing. One example of that progression is
available bit rate (ABR), which is just now being
employed in CPE and provides for a more effective
use of bandwidth.
The Jackson Public Schools (JPS) district in
Jackson, Miss., is on the leading edge of ATM
technology. The district chose to install an ATM
backbone to run its distance learning, video security,
scheduling, Internet access, accounting and inventory
applications on one network. JPS is also conducting
a trial of a VoIP system to reside on the ATM
network. This aggressive move will deliver
improved communications services throughout the
school district. With this innovative technology in
place, JPS will have access to virtually unlimited
bandwidth, and all broadband traffic, including
voice, video and data, will traverse the same
network.
Every business could potentially benefit from an
ATM network. ATM allows administrators to
monitor and manage their networks 24 hours a day.
With ATM they can consistently measure the
utilization and performance of their networks and be
alerted if more bandwidth is needed before
deterioration occurs. Additionally, the QoS of ATM
networks makes it possible for carriers to offer
competitive service level agreements (SLAs).
Perhaps we may even see comprehensive SLAs
covering interlata, interstate and international
networks.
With its cell architecture, flexibility and high
bandwidth, ATM is ideally suited to serve as the
heart of carriers? IP network offerings in the coming
years. In the future, as businesses move to computer
telephony integration (CTI) and integrated
multimedia e-commerce applications, carriers will
migrate from the ATM foundation to the even greater
speeds of IP over SONET.
8888888888888888
Marty Kaplan, chief technology officer, Sprint
-----------------------------------------------------
To look at the future of ATM, you first have to look
at what it offers today. Currently, ATM provides
Sprint with several basic attributes that are
necessary for integrating all services over a common
infrastructure. Those attributes are predictable
quality of service, congestion control, delivery
classes and dynamic bandwidth allocation
capabilities.
Sprint is looking at how best to optimize transport
and protocol efficiencies while at the same time
retaining those attributes previously mentioned. IP
gives us specific attributes, including efficient
multiplexing, interworking and multicasting. The
whole design of the Internet was ?IP over anything?--
IP over frame relay, IP over ATM, etc. Today,
however, the reverse is not true.
What we will see in the future is IP evolution
characterized by the merging of ATM with IP. This
new mode combines the best attributes of IP and
ATM. It will not look like the IP we see today; the
packet structure will be different, as will the
overhead structure. The merging of ATM and IP will
mirror what is presently happening in the transport
layer, where DWDM and SONET are merging.
DWDM is more efficient, but the attributes of
SONET, such as timing, framing, survivability and
service consistency, are required. So, DWDM will
take on the attributes of SONET. Applications will
be written in IP, so the new mode will probably be
called IP. We will gain value from not having to
convert everything to IP.
8888888888888888
Vince Rocca, VP of engineering and CTO, 2nd
Century
---------------------
ATM has not realized its full potential because it has
been sold only as a transport service. In this
scenario, end users that purchase ATM must
understand the complexities of ATM to correctly
deploy it. This has proven to be a daunting task for
all but the most determined organizations. The real
value of ATM is as a local access service delivery
infrastructure. Here ATM itself is not presented to
the end user but rather is used to deliver services
efficiently by a carrier. Applications such as voice,
video and Internet access can be delivered to a
customer via a single ATM access facility such as
DS-1 or DSL without the end user knowing that
ATM is being used. By combining these services on
a single facility, significant savings can be realized
by carriers that traditionally have delivered these
services via separate access facilities. Also, since
services are truly integrated and bandwidth is
dynamically allocated as required, bandwidth is
shared among several services rather than dedicated.
Sharing bandwidth in this fashion effectively lowers
the cost per bit to deliver services in the most
expensive portion of the network, the last mile.
ATM?s next step is to move from being a complex
technology that end users with limited resources must
retrain their work forces to use effectively to a
technology that carriers harness to deliver services
without requiring major expenditures by customers to
use it.
8888888888888888
Bill Pearon, director of global product marketing,
Newbridge Networks
------------------------------------------------
ATM has been on a roller coaster ride of criticism
lately. Not a year ago, IP proponents were ushering
in the premature demise of ATM due to the meteoric
proliferation of IP-based applications and services.
Only after the sobering realization that IP-based
services accounted for less than 4 percent of service
provider revenues in the United States in 1998 did
the tide turn back to ATM?s strengths as an enabling
technology. After all, ATM was designed
specifically to provide efficient adaptation and
consolidation of multiple services, both legacy and
emerging. Furthermore, while emerging IP services
promise to be the growth engines of tomorrow,
legacy services provide the revenues today.
ATM?s maturity and acceptance is also due, in large
part, to its proven ability to deliver services in as
reliable a fashion as its predecessor networks. It is
living up to its original intention to be a resilient
multiservices protocol. There are also several
unexpected benefits from ATM?s capabilities. Not
only have multiple services been rolled off a single
platform, but now multiple network functions are
being performed within a single ATM platform,
resulting in a simpler, flatter infrastructure. Digital
cross-connect functionality, Class 4 voice switch
functionality, integrated DSL delivery and direct
LMDS radio interfaces are just a few of the recent
creative implementations on ATM platforms.
Most interestingly, however, is ATM?s role in the
future of IP core networks. ATM is providing the
transitional solution for IP?s limitations in quality
and legacy service adaptation. IP core platforms are
utilizing ATM backplanes and IP QoS schemes are
mimicking ATM?s capabilities as IP continues to
evolve as a future core network protocol. This
cooperative existence will continue well into the
next decade as ATM?s enabling capabilities provide
the springboard for IP?s credibility and robustness in
the network core.
8888888888888888
Rich Stankevich, ATM product marketing
manager, broadband systems division, General
DataComm
-------------------------------------------
Worldwide, ATM has become a dominant
technological tool for service providers. The basis
of the technology and many of the standards defining
its ancillary features may be mature, but the provider
community is only now beginning to exercise the
ATM feature set and extract value from it. In the vast
majority of cases, the economies and efficiencies that
ATM can provide remain largely untapped.
Several examples shed light on this.
From the days when ATM was only an attractive theory, it was
perceived as a method for transport and switching of
broadband ISDN services--that is, dynamic,
switched connectivity. Dynamic connection setup
and teardown allows for great efficiencies in the use
and management of facilities resources, yet many
providers have chosen to offer ATM services as
fixed, permanent virtual connections. In fact, most
core ATM networks today only offer subscribers
permanent virtual path (VP) connections: all the
simpler to manage and operate. These subscriber VP
networks inefficiently use bandwidth and limit the
capability of the provider to extend SLAs to the user
community. Narrowband-to-broadband signaling
interworking for dynamic WAN use and new
methods of WAN edge traffic shaping are some of
the means by which service providers may gain more
flexible, assured use of their ATM investments.
Another area of unrealized ATM potential in the
provider environment is in the ability to extract
billing/accounting information based on subscriber
usage. Whether data is collected at the service
network edge or network core, such information may
be manipulated for usage billing (with its own
attendant value to provider and subscriber). Usage
data may also be the basis for sophisticated
performance management, not only to tune the
provider network, but also to monitor and ensure
subscriber services.
Perhaps straining the maturity metaphor,
the service providers of the world are graduating
from ATM University. It?s time to use what they?ve
learned.
RSNo. 306
ww2.infoxpress.com
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