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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2299)	12/13/1999 10:48:00 PM
From: Step1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Henry, a few comments added here: >>The biggest swing in sentiment has been among foreigners. Why has sentiment shifted among foreigners. Some of it I believe is due to a limited understanding of the extent of the problems. Also I believe a lot of foreigners are still married to the 80s vision of a dominant unstoppable Japan Inc. They don't realize how much the picture has changed.<< I am not sure there is a foolproof way of knowing exactly why sentiment changed but I think Barton Biggs really fired that last rally from 13000 to 18000 ( I think he made his comments more around the 14000 level). Maybe it had just become too cheap to pass up and was worth the gamble, or maybe some people did their homework and saw some important moves and announcements come up or maybe as you state, foreigners are still caught in their old views of Japan Inc. The foreign press (outside of Time/Newsweek and the Economist ) has also put a number of good spins of stories coming out of Japan and there is the flow of equity money from US markets looking for less lofty rarified levels to diversify. All those factors in short, driving the "sentiment"... Your point about the pension liabilities is an extremely good one . The Japanese know it all too well (on a personal and individual level) . You probably know that most pension money is not a pension as such in the sense that it is a one time pay-off at the time of retirement. For example, when turning 60, you cease to be a full time employee (sometimes rehired as contract worker) and get your "taishokukin" or severance pay in fact. The amount is fairly large for well rated companies, 300,000 USD or more , and that is the pension you get. Of course most employees will also have paid into a private pension fund either individually or through their unions. The catch as you said is that these funds (on the company`s part) are not safeguarded and set aside but rather expensed in the current year, so if the company goes bankrupt ... That is my understanding of the system of course, throw stones if you think I am wrong... Government employees do get a pension however, in the sense that we call it a pension. Other tidbits, the national pension scheme is not obligatory, especially if your premiums are not deducted at source, you don`t need to pay into the systems (increasingly people running their own small businesses or self-employed are deciding to opt out, mostly as there are serious doubts concerning the government`s ability to deliver on its promises...) Thx for breathing new life into the thread. Japan, as the second economy in the world is hugely important in the overall picture. Indeed very interesting times... sg