Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (35132)	12/13/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: Craig Richards	Respond to of 99985

Latest approximate P/E's of major markets, based on 12/10 closing data: market # of total market total earnings P/E ratio cos. cap ($million) ($million) ================================================================ NYSE 2352 15900144.83 504847.37 31.49 NASD 4660 5559108.59 14414.60 385.66 AMEX 647 136016.62 2940.39 46.26 OTC 1622 319636.67 -20940.47 -15.26

To: Les H who wrote (35132)	12/14/1999 12:44:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

TALK FROM TRENCHES: US TSYS WEAKER BUT YEAR-END SUPPORT SEEN By Isobel Kennedy NEW YORK (MktNews) - U.S. Treasuries are slightly softer Monday but going forward prices are expected to remain supported by friendly economic data, year-end window dressing, and possible Y2K distortions. On Tuesday, the producer price index and retail sales figures will be released and are expected to be okay for the bond market. Industrial production will be released on Wednesday and that will be followed by the trade balance on Thursday. One U.S. economist says at worst, the Oct trade gap will be stagnant, but it remains "quite wide, pointing to the need for significant financing on foreign capital markets." Keep in mind, NYFRB McDonough recently said the current account balance was one of the main reasons the Fed hiked rates in November. Wednesday, the size of the next two-year sale will be announced. It is expected to go well despite its bad settlement date of December 31, partly because Y2K fears might support the issue. In addition, The Wrightson Money Market Observer says Treasury officials said a reduction in the supply of 2Y notes will be one of the first steps the Treasury takes in adjusting to the increased budget surplus in FY2000. Look for a standard $15B 2Y issue in December, but the volume of new 2Y notes should diminish in 1Q. The most likely outlook is for a cut from 12 sales per year to 8. Year-end window dressing is being seen Monday. Sources report domestic real money accounts buying 2Y notes in good size. And central banks have been selling short dated bills and putting the proceeds into 3Y to 4Y coupons, others say. In other flows, foreign central banks were better sellers of cash 5s for the second session in a row. In futures, a N.Y. dealer bought 7,500 5Y contacts. The skinny says the buying was for a large Florida-based hedge fund. In the U.S. agency market, sources say intermediate spreads are under pressure, led by street traders who are lightening up their positions for year end. There is anticipation that customer accounts may join in this selling for year-end window dressing purposes. That is weighing on swap spreads and that will likely cause agency spreads to widen further, sources report. Some swap traders anticipate 5Y and 10Y swap spreads to widen anywhere from 7 bps to 10 bps. 30Y agency paper is currently holding firm but will likely come under pressure if the jumbo Tennessee Valley Authority 30Y deal ever materializes, they say. Flows in the Treasury market have been dwindling all year, and as Christmas nears, they are falling further. On Friday, Govpx said 1999 average daily volume is only 74.1% of the average daily volume posted in 1998 -- a decrease of 25.9%. Average Daily volume for 1999 stands at $53.2B vs $71.7B in 1998. Of course, the slightest hint of any Y2K upheaval, probably originating overseas, could send players scurrying into the safety of the U.S. market at the drop of a hat. Optima Investment Research says Monday that the markets will continue to watch "the reaction by the US and Europe to the Russian assault on Chechnya. A cut-off of financial aid to Russia could foster another round of concern about Russian defaults and boost risk aversion in general by global investors, particularly ahead of Y2K." But others point out that while Russia still has a cash problem, recent gains in oil prices have helped their economy, making their dependence on an IMF loan less serious. Japan's unadjusted current account surplus fell 16.7% in October from a year earlier to Y1.085 trillion. The surplus has now dropped in annual terms for nine months in a row. The surplus in merchandise trade fell 14.4% to Y1.305 trillion, with exports down 6.1% at Y3.960 trillion and imports down 1.4% at Y2.655 trillion. This would appear to suggest that Japan is not exporting its way out of their recession. Japanese investors were net buyers of Y1.052 trillion in overseas bonds in October on a settlement basis, the Finance Ministry said. Total purchases of overseas bonds by Japanese names stood at Y5.756 trillion against sales of Y4.705 trillion. More on Japan: on Tuesday, the Economic Strategy Institute is holding a forum on the Japanese economy. Goldman Sachs Vice Chair Hormats and Japan's External Trade Organization's N.Y. President Yamada participate. The euro hit parity with the dollar 10 days ago. It then rebounded a bit but is back under pressure. One trader says it is "dog paddling" and someone better throw it a life preserver soon before it goes under! European Central Bank President Duisenberg told the Wall Street Journal that he thought the euro's fall was overdone but he was not concerned about it. He said he does not expect coordinated G-3 intervention at this point and that the ECB would not intervene with Japan alone to halt the yen's rise. By the way, G-20 finance ministers and central bank heads meet in Berlin this week. Bank of England's Eddie George said he thought G-3 exchange rates would be a main topic. "Eddie" also says the U.S. economy continues to be characterized by a "succession of positive surprises." As far as Europe is concerned he says there is a "continuation of evidence of the economy picking up quite strongly" with growth possibly outstripping that of the U.S. next year. Christmas 1999 retail sales in Germany reached a new high over the weekend, the Confederation of German Retail Trade reported, noting that 60% of retailers posted higher sales on the third Saturday of Advent than on the previous two weekends. Over in the USA, one strategist says retailers are reporting sales "on target or above plan" last week as more seasonal temperatures boosted apparel and seasonal sales. "With the holiday shopping season set to shift into high gear, it looks like all systems are go for a strong finish. This coming Saturday will be particularly important given that for the past four years the Saturday before Christmas has been the top shopping day of the holiday season." On Friday, the U.N. Security Council voted to extend an Iraqi oil-for-food program for another six months, which sent oil prices sharply lower in late-day trading. However, it was reported today that a final vote on the plan may be delayed until Tuesday. We mentioned in this piece Friday that Greenspan's sub-committee on the bias and transparency should have something to say early next year. There is now a lot of chatter in the street that something may come out of this committee around the time of the Dec 21 FOMC meeting. The Wall Street Journal today pegged the biggest stock gainers of the 1990s as AOL, Dell Computer Corp., EMC Corp., Cisco Systems Inc. and CMGI Inc. AOL alone, which led the "Fab 5," saw a gain of nearly 80,000% for the decade. NOTE: Talk From the Trenches is a daily compendium of chatter from Treasury trading rooms offered as a gauge of the mood in the financial markets. It is not hard, verified news.