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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (2720)12/14/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 11513
 
the CRB does appear to have rounded over and it has broken below it's uptrend line of rising bottoms since sept.

a break below 24.50-60 would be a negative for crude as would as would falling below the late sept high of 24.00 basis Jan.

the commercial are short crude and the spec's are long which further supports your thesis,:

Crude Oil...........long..............short

Large Speculator...56,675 -15,781 ---18,469 -612

Commercial Hedger..369,999 14,857 ---427,077 504

Small Trader.......107,002 1,228-----88,130 41

the 200 dma is under 20 currently



To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (2720)12/14/1999 10:45:00 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11513
 
here is a 3 year CRB chart with the 200 dma in blue and a couple of support resistance lines.

geocities.com

200 may give way, but as long as we stay above the 200 dma at 195 ish then, we should still be in a CRB bull mkt.

serious doubts occur upon a break of the green support line at 192.

just a few thoughts.

Of course if I looked at the grain markets only, I would not find it hard to believe that The World was about To End ... -vbg-

John