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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (124)	12/14/1999 9:46:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

I think the bonds are tanking due to this: biz.yahoo.com Atlanta Fed manufacturing index 21.7 in Nov ATLANTA, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The Atlanta Federal Reserve said on Tuesday its monthly index of Southeastern manufacturing conditions rose to 21.7 in November from a revised 14.4 in October. Following is a summary of Southeastern Manufacturing Conditions Diffusion Index, seasonally adjusted, current month versus prior month: November October (Rev) September Industry business cond 21.7 14.4 11.1 Production 24.2 20.3 11.5 Shipments 27.9 24.4 16.5 New orders 8.2 12.0 17.1 Backlog of orders 2.2 6.0 -7.5 Materials inventories 6.5 -0.3 -10.4 Inv finished goods -4.6 -0.3 -23.2 Number of employees 0.9 4.8 4.8 Average workweek 4.3 1.4 3.8 Prices received 10.7 4.9 8.0 Prices paid 17.1 18.3 27.0 New export orders 1.6 0.0 4.8 Supplier deliv time 12.2 8.9 0.0

To: Lucretius who wrote (124)	12/15/1999 7:45:00 AM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

This belongs on Clown thread... >>Wrong! for Monday By James J. Cramer The Street.com N E W Y O R K, Dec. 13 — It isn't enough to just acknowledge that the old rules don't apply. You have to look at what may be the new rules, trying to spot what makes a winning stock stay winning. We have a bunch of different prisms at work here. First, the earnings surprise model still works; in fact, it works better than ever. Take Sun Micro. It continues to deliver upside surprises and it continues to go up. The thing that has disappeared is the valuation constraint. There used to be analysts who would downgrade on valuation and there used to be mutual funds that would sell when things got too expensive. Now those things don't happen. You can still make an excellent case for earnings surprise monitoring though. It is, even at these levels, what keeps me in on Yahoo! and makes me wish I were longer. Same with Cisco. The ‘Killer Model' Second, the “killer model” analysis has made you a ton of money in 1999. That model says, “If you can find a business that scales, that allows billions of dollars in revenues to result by simply executing well, then you will have a fabulous stock.” This rationale works for a host of dot-coms and dot-com infrastructure plays. Finally, the revenue surprise model works great if a company has more revenues than it can handle. We used to think that what mattered was how to bring those revenues into profits. Now we just presume it will happen. You may disagree with that, but be careful: Amazon just hit its 52-week high, totally validating this model. <<