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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12756)	12/14/1999 10:50:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

Mucho Maas: I find myself in a very strange position as the only defender of SNDK on this thread. My concentration is elsewhere in wireless and fiber. I only stretched a point and bought SNDK because of the excellence of Ausdauer's analysis and further learning on the SI SanDisk thread where many substantive posts are helpful in learning about the potential of CF as a pervasive facilitator of handhelds inter alia. The wireless phone potential is why I bought. But the current primary use is digital cameras, music devices (MP3) and games. The future looks very bright to me for CF and therefore for SNDK. (I also own a little SSTI as part of a 2 stock basket on CF - consistent with the gorilla game approach outlined in the book) BTW is is precisely because I also do not see enough proof of a "lock" that I think SNDK is a prince at a minimum, and probably a king. Since DownSouth says there has been frequent posts on SNDK, where are all those posters now? Who here thinks SNDK is a King? Anyone? Cha2 PS For DownSouth, I agree that Mike's questions were excellent. DownSouth, you misunderstood what I was trying to say. What I meant was the Mike Buckley took Ausdauer up on his presentation and asked questions in his usual way - very much to the point. I was trying to say that except for Mike, no one even replied to Ausdauer - except for a few "shiny pebble" illusions.. (That is my memory) Cha2

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12756)	12/14/1999 10:54:00 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, I agree with mucho of Mucho's SNDK analysis, but since I had already decided what I would post before I saw this, let me put it up anyway for the record. The G&K strategy is basically a two-level game. We look for sectors that are undergoing hypergrowth, and for the companies in those sectors that are extremely well positioned to capture obscene profits from that hypergrowth over time. I think most of us agree that flash memory is indeed an area that is or will be undergoing hypergrowth, so the sector analysis is undisputed. But I still have two reservations at the company level. First, I am still not sure whether Compact Flash will be the only, or the dominant, flash standard over time. There is obviously Sony as competition, and it seems possible that there might be other alternatives down the road. Assurances that the general flash memory market was converging on the CF standard, and that it could not change from that over time, would be welcome. Second, I am still not sure just what the role of SanDisk is in the CF area. If you could show us that SanDisk was to CF what Qualcomm was to CDMA, then this would become a gorilla game and a lot of us would become a lot more interested. But it seems that SanDisk does not, in fact, get royalties from other CF makers/users (at least at this point). This would make CF a royalty game, rather than a gorilla game. The question then becomes, just what status does SanDisk have at the moment in that game (King, Prince w/ Attitude, or just Prince), and what status is it likely to have in the future when other, bigger players enter down the road. The basic worry here is that SanDisk, while an interesting and impressive company that is well-placed in a rapidly growing sector, may nevertheless not have the sort of assured future growth prospects and margins that we can find in more primatish or royal companies. respectfully, as always, (the originator of the 1-1-1 game deserves no less<GGG>), bubbleboy/Ares@compactflashisagasgasgas.com