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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (12765)	12/14/1999 11:27:00 AM
From: Tom Ardnij	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, I was also very impressed with Ausdauer's presentation on SNDK. Enough so that after some additional DD, I bought shares. However, I see a substantial difference between it and JDSU. JDSU is integrating the component elements of an enabling technology. I can't see substantial competition in sight and they have patents on the IPR. SNDK in compact flash is of course faced with Sony's memory stick technology as a form factor competitor. I expect we will see miniature hard drives as a second form factor competitor in the years to come. Ultimately, I concluded that I would prefer to consolidate my holdings in these two to JDSU. Again reasoning that form factor competition was going to be substantial for SNDK. All this for what it's worth, Best Regards, Tom

To: gdichaz who wrote (12765)	12/14/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, A few points. First, I have always believed that the discussions of SanDisk on the thread were (and are) time well spent. It is clearly an interesting company in an interesting sector, and has some of the qualities we like, and so debating its precise taxonomy is a fine way to sharpen all of our GGing skills. You are correct, by the way, that Ausdauer felt snubbed, but I believe that others are correct as well in thinking that this might have been caused by his oversensitivity and excessive devotion to a particular investment rather than the actual behavior of the thread. Second, let me rephrase two of my concerns in light of the subsequent posts. You have talked about SNDK in relation to SSTI, and that is valid if we are talking about a CF royalty game. But I'd still like to hear about the possibility of other, bigger players muscling in on that game down the road. In other words, even if SNDK is currently the King of CF, will it be able to maintain its seat on the throne once others try to topple it? The "form factor" issue, meanwhile, is also important, because it relates to whether we can in fact narrow down the "flash memory" game to the "CF game." Even if SNDK becomes the King of CF, in other words, will that make it the King of All Flash? If not, then its attractiveness as an investment lessens considerably. Third and finally, a quote from the manual (rev., p. xxiv)that may ease the sting about dismissing Shiny Pebbles (or at least deflect your annoyance from us to Moore et al.): "There is...one more issue to address before we move on to our first chapter. There is an element of the gorilla game as an investment strategy that will prove extremely frustrating to anyone who spends the bulk of their time in high tech--the game almost never advocates investment in any stock that you are interested in! ...So please let it be understood that this does not mean we think all these other stocks are undeserving of investment. We have enormous enthusiasm for the prospects of several hundred high-tech firms we know, and we think many of them will (may?) generate extremely attractive returns. But for the gorilla game proper, to meet the specific needs of a risk-averse and capital-constrained investor, we have imposed a much tighter set of constraints than govern the bulk of high-tech investors currently in the market." (emphasis in the original) as always, tekboy/Ares@wishIwas100%Qtoday.com