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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Verve who wrote (53987)	12/14/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

You know, if we can move this far, this week, on a little "Thunder out of China", I wonder where we can be by the end of the year if they actually do get the division sold to Nokia. Can you say "600"?

To: The Verve who wrote (53987)	12/14/1999 2:24:00 PM
From: Jeff Vayda	Respond to of 152472

Ron: While you are looking out 5 to 10 years, it looks as if the market has eyes only for Q today. Nice strong advance while all around others are headed lower. The story is compelling short and long term. Jeff Vayda

To: The Verve who wrote (53987)	12/14/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 152472

On this I'd defer to mm, engineer, Gregg's old posts, and others who may want to step forward, or remain anonymous.

To: The Verve who wrote (53987)	12/14/1999 3:07:00 PM
From: engineer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

There are two factors out there for phone buildout. Infrastructure and phones. On infrastructure, as the demand grows the number of basestations increase. Since the bandwidth does not increase that much, then the use of smaller and smaller microcells will grow. I do not see that type of buildout slowing down for many years to come. I see 6 sectored cells being the normal, microcells on street light poles becoming standard, and HDR distribution widespread if HDR is the choice. On phones, we have changed from an industry which buys a phone for 10 years and uses it until it breaks. We will see it change to a consumer driven industry where you change out your phone every 2 years (or down to every year??) just to get more network and data functions, much the same consumer model as the PC industry has now. From that point, I think the subscriber numbers actually need to be broken down into the two components. You want the total number of subscribers out there and then you want the total handsets sold. they are NOT equal what so ever today. I see this component growing for a long time. Suppose that it is a given that the infrastructure gets built out until only 2003. It would take another 10 years for the new tehcnology to build out over the top such that there would be no CDMA (although I would bet a beer that it would be similar CDMA based and have some QC IPR in it..). In that 10 years, you might replace the handsets of the consumers twice (assuming that a percentage of them change to the new technology in the later years). At that point this would be like 100M units year. Still BIG $$'s in any event.