3G Phones Divide and Conquer
by Christopher Jones
3:00 a.m. 14.Dec.1999 PST
With a major mobile phone upgrade in the
works worldwide, a new generation of
wireless gadgets is now within arm's
reach.
To be sure, third-generation -- or 3G --
phones will have some impressive
capabilities for new Net-based
communications. But the effects on
wireless subscribers will depend on
standards being negotiated by the
wireless heavyweights of the world and
the International Telecommunications
Union (ITU).
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The ITU is in the final stages of
establishing a global standard for mobile
phones that will make it possible for a
single handset to recognize multiple radio
interfaces around the world. Dubbed
IMT-2000, the standard is meant to be a
framework for 3G phones and wireless
services.
Whereas second-generation wireless
phones transfer data at about 9.6 Kbps,
3G devices will be able to receive data at
2 Mbps.
Francine Lambert, a spokeswoman for the
ITU, said real-time audio/video, radio,
video mail, and other bandwidth-intensive
services will soon be a mobile reality.
"You will be able to see the same as you
can from your desktop on the Web. You
can have video, radio, access to train
and airline schedules, access to your
bank. It [3G devices] will combine all the
tools that you have today to deal with
your leisure or your business," Lambert
said.
The rollout of 3G phones is expected to
start in the East and work its way West.
In Japan, the first high-data rate phones
could hit the market in 2001, reach
Europe in 2003, and arrive in the US by
2004, according to the ITU.
A host of wireless companies have
already announced plans for 3G phones
that take advantage of Internet access
and high-speed transmissions. The ITU
estimates that there will be more mobile
phones in 10 years than fixed-line
phones, and 3G devices will be a $US 9
billion market by 2005.
Ray Jodoin, a wireless analyst with
Cahners In-Stat Group, said that the 3G
wireless world will shape up without a
hitch in most parts of the world, where
the global system for mobile
communications standard, or GSM, is in
place.
In the US, however, competing standards
may cause some growing pains.
"This [IMT-2000] is going forward and
progressing in most areas, with one
exception -- the Americas -- because no
one in the FCC knows what in the hell
they're doing. We [the US] seem to place
more interest in whether or not we can
sell something that's not ours to sell --
spectrum -- for money, than whether or
not we conform with the rest of the
world. This is another glaring example of
us pressing forward come hell or high
water," said Jodoin.
The wireless conflict in the United States
is caused by multiple standards
competing for spectrum space, primarily
code division multiple access (CDMA) and
time division multiple access (TDMA).
The wireless standard used in Europe and
Asia, GSM, has recently been making
headway in the US as well. Earlier this
year, Ericsson and Qualcomm agreed to
jointly support a single-world CDMA
standard, but the competition between
the two is far from over.
Perry LaForge, executive director of the
CDMA Development Group, said CDMA is
only gaining steam and it is poised to use
the advanced features and bandwidth
that 3G phones will have.
"While European governments and
operators feel like they have a leg up
with GSM, I think it's shortsighted, and
that disadvantages them because they
won't have a choice to go with the most
effective process. They'll be playing
catch up over a number of years."
LaForge thinks CDMA providers will lead
the way in the 3G market with
customized applications. Devices will offer
simple interfaces, custom applications,
and location-specific services, he said
citing the Neopoint phone as an example
of what's to come.
But will improved 3G technology and new
wireless gadgets make it easier for
subscribers to take care of business?
Maybe.
"What we have now in the US is four
different standards over two different
frequency bands, with four interfaces
that don't talk to one another. You don't
know what to take with you when you're
on a business trip…we're gonna have the
[increased] data rates here, but what we
will not have is the ability to go from city
A to city B and be sure that the phone
will work," Jodoin said.
However, LaForge said, "People are
already working on CDMA/GSM phones
today, and I would be very surprised if
you don't see an announcement this
year."
But before any of these new wireless
devices and services really take off,
important details to be sorted out,
foremost of which is the access to cell
networks.
In March, ITU members met in Brazil to
hammer out some of the technical
standards to make IMT-2000 a reality,
and another meeting is scheduled in next
May in Istanbul. There, some of the
biggest political battles will be over the
global spectrum allocation, and how much
control regional regulators like the FCC
will have in the new market.
"If you want competition on a world wide
scale…you have to allow all five radio
interfaces to be available according to
the operators' wishes. And [it will be] the
regulators that will fix those rules of the
game at the national level," said Lambert.
With international companies like
Qualcomm, Ericsson, Nokia, Lucent,
Alcatel, Motorola, and Toshiba in the
discussions, regional interests are sure to
create some tension.
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