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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (56880)	12/14/1999 4:08:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Jacob: Rates obviously are not high enough yet to break the bubble. But whatever that level that is -- it probably will be reached IMHO. Respected AEI economist John Mackin opined in a recent article that long bond yields will reach 8% by mid-2000 unless the bubble bursts first. The only credible argument that rates are near a peak now has to assume a Y2K induced recession next year. And that would play hell on corporate profits. So I see the market (really just its bubble components) in a no win situation. If Y2k turns out to be a minor irritant, rates are headed much higher. But if Y2k turns out to be a major problem -- corporate profits will fall way short of consensus expectations. On a more positive note, such problems are already priced into the value sectors of the market which should hold up well (albeit still taking a few lumps) when the techs get smashed.