Doug:U.S.CARRIERS YEARS BEHIND IN WIRELESS FROM EUROPEANS:
My very point: European Carriers have been around longer
and know better wha are the requirements of a golbal network.That is why they all chose NN.
That is why they will all buy NN wireless LMDS and use their NN ATMs with it,
TA
-----------------------------------
"http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19991119/news/current/telecom_usview.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo
A U.S. view on European wireless fray
U.S. carriers years behind in global wireless business
By Jeffry Bartash, CBS
MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:34 PM ET Nov 19,
1999
NewsWatch
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.K.-based Vodafone's
hostile attempt to acquire Germany's Mannesmann won't
have immediate repercussions in the U.S., but if
Vodafone wins the battle, it could force American
carriers to accelerate plans to expand wireless phone
service overseas.
For the past few years, American carriers have been
focused almost exclusively on creating wireless
networks covering the 48 contiguous states.
Even now, behemoths such as Sprint (FON: news, msgs)
and AT&T (T: news, msgs), while touting national
coverage, still have gaps in their networks. And MCI
WorldCom (WCOM: news, msgs) has no network at all,
which is why it's agreed to buy Sprint.
The push to create U.S. wireless networks is even
greater among the large local phone carriers, which are
further behind in the game. BellSouth (BLS: news,
msgs) and SBC Communications (SBC: news, msgs),
among others, still lack a national presence.
"They have to worry about filling in major holes here,"
said Adam Zawel, a wireless analyst at The Yankee
Group.
Even the one U.S. company that would seemingly appear
to benefit from a Vodafone victory, joint venture partner
Bell Atlantic (BEL: news, msgs), would not harvest the
fruits for several years at least.
The reason: Bell Atlantic and AirTouch, the Vodafone
unit with which the Bell has formed a joint venture to
blanket the U.S., use a different wireless transmission
standard than the European carriers.
As a result, Bell Atlantic wouldn't be able to entice
prospective customers with a "global" wireless service
that evades cross-border roaming charges. And it'll be
several years at least before a unified global
transmission standard takes hold and wireless users will
be able to make calls from anywhere in the world.
Nonetheless, if Vodafone manages to
hunt down Mannesmann (see main
story), it'll become the world's largest
wireless carrier by far. That could put
more pressure on American operators
to look beyond the U.S.
To some extent, they are already doing
that. AT&T has an alliance with
British Telecommunications (BTY:
news, msgs) and is likely to make its
international push in concert with the
U.K.-based telecommunications giant.
MCI WorldCom and Sprint, both
internationally oriented carriers, will
also seek overseas opportunities,
though that'll probably have to wait
until the carriers see if they can muster
regulatory support for their pending
$135 billion merger. Policymakers in
Washington are putting up stiff
resistance.
"MCI Worldcom and Sprint have their
hands full with their own merger,"
Drake Johnstone of Davenport & Co.
noted. He estimates it could take a year or more for the
carriers to win approval.
Among the local phone giants, BellSouth has made the
biggest waves, though it's concentrating mostly on Latin
America.
Vodafone's combination with Mannesmann, while no
sure thing, would increase the pressure. "I think it will
encourage U.S. supercarriers to consider international
footprints more quickly," Zawel summed up.
--------------------
Message #15744 from Tunica Albuginea at Dec 14 1999 9:40PM
Doug, I believe ATM sales in the US are doing very well as numerous previous
postings have shown.Even LU ATM sales are up 100% last Q. ( NN up 70% ).
That's because CLEC's and ISPs are buying them heavy duty and LU concentrated on that.
I gave you Morgan Stanley's report and Arno Penzias' from LU says IP will not be all.
Initially ISPs are small and they may have bought the all-router sell pitch.
But as soon as things heat up they will find the truth:
Here is the truth in a well thought out post from fumble to gbh:
----------------------------------------------------
Message 11076814
To gbh who wrote (13050)
From fumble Reply #13057 of 15741
Thursday, August 26, 1999 1:27 PM ET
<<The Cerent box, apparently, can seemlessly groom all these traffic
types for presentation to the Sonet transport layer.>>
Looking at the Cerent spec sheet, it appears to be a statistical multiplexer which allows
different types of traffic (voice, data, video) to be stuffed
down the same (very big) pipe.
If the pipe is big enough, then all of the packets will go through without
any conflict and customers will be smiling.
I don't know about the economics of big pipes though. It would seem that a 2Gb pipe would cost
twice what a 1Gb pipe costs on a per mile basis. If this
cost is significant, then there is a benefit in prioritizing traffic down the pipe and
charging more for the best QoS (a la ATM) rather than depending on IP
'best efforts' transmission.
Right now, massive fiber optic cables may mean there is an oversupply of
fiber bandwidth - just waiting for someone to utilize it (I don't know). In
the future though, Parkinson's Law will rule - traffic will increase to fill the pipes.
Quest's TV advertising -> do you want all of the movies ever made, in all languages,
at any time, on your screen? If this was true for a large number of
people, it would fill some very big pipes.
If the traffic approaches the size of the pipes, then some time, some packets will have to be tossed aside.
With IP routing, those packets will just
be retransmitted again (with a delay). This will cause lousy voice and
video and will not reduce the average traffic (will actually increase the
traffic).
With ATM routing, connections with higher QoS can be differentiated and priced higher,
and those packets will not be tossed aside.
The future (ATM vs IP) depends on the ultimate cost per mile of a Gb of fiber cable bandwidth
versus the capital cost of the equipment to feed the
cable and keep track of the packets and manage things through
thick and thin (cable breakage, power failures, software upgrades, etc.)
-----------------------
Again all these talk about all-IP is just a selling pitch. For the IPO financiers
who will sell you snake oil to make balding hair grow.
Carriers know better. That is why France, Canada, Germany ,Switzerland and England
Carriers Telcos went with Newbridge.
They have been around longer and can separate ATM from IP from Snake Oil much better.
In the US it it will take longer .
You want examples of US Fads? Think of these.
In Schools:
a)Centuries-old, proven " Phonics "was thrown out to buy new books
teaching " Whole Language ". California took 15 years to before they realized kids
didn't learn to speak and ditch out and go back to phonics.
b) The New Math: another failure. we are now going back to the old Math.
On and on. In the US people are very susceptible to sales pitches.
They will pass when the truth Mack Truck hits: like in Downtown Chicago; ION;TELIA, etc etc,
TA
Message #15739 from Doug at Dec 14 1999 8:34PM
Tunica: I have no concern about NN's capabilities in Europe.
They have a good name and reputation in Europe and in China.
The problems pertain to the USA where hype and the desperation of keeping upto date
is more endemic. Under such conditions, Network Owners are apt to follow
what the Leaders do. In turn the small Eqpt Firm would be wise to follow
the Eqpt leader in so far as trends are concerned.
Once again the question of the day
is "Is ATM Carrier switch sales growth in the USA increasing". If not, what is replacing it.?
Thanks.
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