MSFT looks on track to ship WIN2000. The bolded paragraph indicates there will be an initial surge ins ales by large companies. This and INTC's new processors will help DELL make significant top line growth in 2000.
Fez
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Microsoft poised to ship Windows 2000 code, finally
From Time to Time: Nando's in-depth look at the 20th century
By MICHAEL J. MARTINEZ
REDMOND, Wash. (December 14, 1999 6:56 p.m. EST nandotimes.com) - It's taken three years and a year later than intended, but Microsoft Corp. is nearly ready to ship the latest operating system in the Windows family, Windows 2000, to its manufacturing partners.
Windows 2000, which will succeed Windows NT version 4.0 for Microsoft's corporate customers, is coming nearly a year later than Microsoft intended. The delay has meant more opportunities for other software makers such as Sun Microsystems and the numerous companies supporting the free Linux operating system.
That makes this version of Windows doubly important, as Windows 2000 represents the company's technological and financial future for the next few years.
Windows 2000 is designed for high-powered computers and networks for businesses, and is based on a different software architecture than Windows 98, which is aimed at the home market.
Prices begin around $149 for each user, while versions for network computers start around $599 and climb according to the number of users licensed. But industry analysts say the software price alone is only a small portion of the total cost to convert to the complex new system.
Even Microsoft officials say Windows 2000, due to be released to computer makers sometime in the next few weeks and on the retail market on Feb. 17, will not fly off the shelves the way Windows 98 did last year.
The complex operating system, with an estimated 35 million lines of code, can give even the most tech-savvy company pause.
"This is no simple upgrade. Switching from NT to Windows 2000 will be like installing a whole new operating system," said Laura DiDio, senior analyst with the Giga Information Group.
That, analysts say, will drive up the overall cost of Windows 2000. In fact, although the price of Windows 2000 licenses will remain steady compared with NT 4.0, analysts agree there are a number of added costs to consider, including training, added memory for servers and lost production time as the Windows 2000 network gets up to speed.
Giga recently completed a study of a sample network of 30 servers and 5,000 workstations. In that study, a company would have to spend $535,000 to get Windows 2000 up and running on its servers, and another $973 per workstation - a total of $5.4 million.
Because of that, few companies will initially be willing to install Windows 2000 within the first three months of its release, according to research firm International Data Group.
"Most companies want to wait until the bugs are out and they can point to others who have done it first," said Dan Kuznetsky, an analyst with IDG. "This won't be adopted right away."
This is not lost on the software giant. Windows 2000 product manager Craig Beilinson said the new system is modular and can be rolled out in pieces as companies find the time and money to do so.
"Any time you roll out a piece of software, there's cost associated with that," Beilinson said. "That's why people can install part of Windows 2000 server, and have it work well with older NT workstations or even Windows 95 or 98."
To help companies with their Windows 2000 changeover, computer manufacturers like IBM, Dell and Hewlett-Packard are providing hardware upgrades and tech support packages.
Other concerns have been raised about technical problems in Windows 2000 "betas" - the product's test versions. Beilinson said that the company took its time in releasing Windows 2000, and suffered the negative press about product delays, in order to fix as many problems as possible.
Despite the improvements, there will be some companies who will wait until the first bug fixes come out before installing Windows 2000. Some may even hold off entirely.
"There will certainly be some companies that will say, 'If it's not broken, why fix it?"' DiDio said. "And for small to mid-size companies, even some large ones, that's a solid business decision."
However, up to 40 percent of large corporations will roll out Windows 2000 within the first six months of its release, according to IDG, which means a steady stream of revenue for Microsoft.
Windows NT, first introduced in 1993, had not been updated since 1997, although Microsoft periodically released additional software, called service packs, to fix problems or add new features.
NT currently has a majority market share for business desktops, but has seen stiff competition for servers, in part due to the delay in releasing Windows 2000.
The Linux operating system, for example, currently holds anywhere from 18 to 25 percent of the server market - better estimates are difficult to make since the system is free to download. Nearly all of Linux' market share was gained while Windows 2000 was in development.
Eventually, Microsoft hopes to base future versions of Windows 98 on the Windows 2000 code. The delays, however, mean that yet another version of consumer-use Windows will be based on the older Windows code, in use since the early 1990s. |
