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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad2 who wrote (2207)	12/15/1999 8:48:00 AM
From: Scarecrow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

First off, as a regular lurker on this thread, I must state that I am not one of the true gloom-and-doomers that regularly post here. I'm long a couple of good Internet stocks (CMGI, SWCM) and I believe in the long-term future of the 'net. However, I am also highly skeptical of some of these issues, too. Some of the content/community sites are dubious at best. Anyway, I'm not predicting a major meltdown because the surge in this market -- in Internet stocks in particular, but the overall market as well -- is being driven by what Toffler would call a megatrend. And that's boomers saving for retirement. In the past 10 years with 401Ks saturating the market, everyone's stuffed money in for retirement and that trend isn't likely to suddenly change. (It will, I believe, begin to fade in 10 years as the curve moves to age 65...). SO, short term, my big "prediction" -- December will stay sideways and in January we will have a REVERSE January effect. Why: people have racked up very big gains in 99. They don't want to take the capital gains and pay that out in April, so they'll wait to sell until January to push it to the next tax year. It wouldn't suprise me one bit to see a 10-15 percent retrenchment in the first week of January. (Of course, it wouldn't surprise me to see a 10-15 gain, either!) <g>