To: Investor Clouseau who wrote (45003 ) 12/15/1999 4:25:00 PM From: $Mogul Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 108040
CRYS I CIBC Oppenhimer's Take: on FORTY, CRYS NVESTMENT CONCLUSION: We recently met with management in Israel and are reiterating our STRONG BUY rating. Three of Formula's subsidiaries; Forsoft, Crystal , Wiztec are growing at a faster clip than we originally anticipated. As such, we would not be surprised if Formula easily surpassed our revenue estimates in 3Q98. A delay of the Transtech IPO will affect our gains on shareholdings projected and consequently our EPS estimates for the quarter, but we expect operating numbers to be very strong. In our former projections, we had estimated that Transtech would generate $3.3 million of shareholding gains. Consequently, we have reduced our EPS estimate (include gains on shareholdings) from $0.68 to $0.27. We expect this deal to be successfully completed when the market conditions improve. Armed with $140 million in cash, the FORTY management team will be able to gobble up a greater array of software/IT entities with compelling valuations. We expect M&A activity to heat up under the Formula umbrella. FORTY indicated that it will fully consolidate the results of Mashov, a holding company, in which it owns a 40% equity stake in 3Q98 results. Consequently, we are raisng our revenue projections for the remaining quarters of 1998 and 1999. However, this will be some slight earnings diluted in 3Q98 and 4Q98 from this transaction. We recently visited with the management of Formula Systems in Israel. Bussiness is currently very strong. Sales from Crystal , Forsoft, and Wiztec have been VERY strong throughout this quarter. As such, we would not be surprised if Formula SIGNIFICANTLY beat our revenue est. for 3Q98. Last quarter these three subsidiaries combined, represented 40% of total revenues, so any boost in sales should be very accretive to Formula's top line. Given the complexity of the financial transactions, we would counsel investors to focus on FORT's operating income results because EPS has been so difficult to predict. FORTY's EPS results fluctuate so drastically because of gains on conditions. We are expecting FORTY's operating income to increase by roughly $500,000 to $6.6 million in 3Q98, $700,000 to $26 million in 1999, and $3.3 million to $44.1 million in 1999. At this time, we are also taking into account the recent Shekel devaluation. In early October, the dollar hit its annual high against the Shekel at 4.50 but is currently around 4.20. One month prior the shekel was selling for 3.851. This represents 9% devaluation in a very short time period. If we continue to see a ramp in the Israeli CPI and the dollar continues to be strong, then we would expect to see Formula's top line to show slowing growth because of the currency translation. Formula's domestic sales (which represent 60% of the company's total sales) would be impacted by any further devaluation so we are trying to be conservative in our prognostications. If it were not for the currency effect and our belief that Formula will spin off unprofitable Mashov subsidiaries, then our revenue projections would have been much higher.