To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (37094 ) 12/15/1999 2:10:00 AM From: Bux Respond to of 45548
Bux, you either give more credence to IBM or the Bears like Gary. Mehrdad, I don't give any credence to Gary, or hardly anyone for that matter, but he sure is a lot more pleasant to be around since your early predictions have started to become reality. I have high hopes for him by next summer if he has the balls to still be in 3Com at the levels we will likely see by then. Had a little run-in with DiamondH over on the Q thread when COMS was breaking through 30. He was convinced that it was such a terrible company (Eric, etc.) and that would never change. Nothing I could tell him would change his mind, he was so bitter. He said one day I would wake up and my money would be gone. You have to be careful who you listen to. I am pretty independent, I like to survey the landscape and form a vision of the future based on the best available evidence. I never look at forward earnings estimates (or the PE's derived from them), never look at the analysts ratings (buy, hold, sell), not even worth a peek. That will remove any objectivity you may have begun the process with. I always look at a 10, 3, and 1 year chart, not to make sure it has done nothing but go up but just to get a better feel for the scene. I also like lots of other charts based on revenues, earnings, sales, margins, etc. but just to survey the scene. Then with the few companies that "pass" this process that I'm sure would appear to have no rhyme or reason to an observer (or even myself actually), I try to learn more about the company by talking to people in the industry, reading chat boards, trying out their products, anything that helps me understand them better. You have to be careful in the chat rooms, the most valuable information comes from those that know the industry inside and out and are presenting primarily facts, not opinion. Many times even industry insiders become jaded are incapable of seeing the wave rising above them. I pretty much skip using technicals to find an entry. The companies I want are poised for growth, it doesn't matter if they have already run up 100% or more in the last 6 months as long as I can see value in the current price. I'm going to be holding until I see the my original reason for buying start to erode so I don't wait for the correction that may or may not present itself. I just wanted to share the investing process I use, everyone does it differently and there is no "right" way, not being condescending to the many seasoned investors here. Bux