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To: manohar kanuri who wrote (2716)12/15/1999 10:43:00 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 6020
 
Manohar, sir, I thank you for your write up. Reads like you had a bit of fun with it. I note in particular you " ... plausibly justifiable valuation models ...". This is exactly what allows us to trade in and out within a comfortable band of +-50%. Two more years of this on Yahoo and I won't have to wait for the 800k target on 9984. My target for Yahoo is 200, or for biotech to make a come back now that human genome is almost fully mapped. I rode on the back of Amgen upon joining the ranks of the working in 1982, and another ride on Amgen/Biogen would be good start to 2000.



To: manohar kanuri who wrote (2716)12/15/1999 10:52:00 PM
From: Yamakita  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6020
 
Manohar, thanks for the most interesting comments. I for one hope you stick around here. I agree with much of your analysis on valuation re the concept of conceptual possibilities. I really think that is what's going on here.

But I take some exception with your take on SIFY. You said,

"What I fail to understand is what assumptions go into valuing a company that operates in a country where the most hyped figure puts the "middle class" at 300 million."

I think what you may be missing is the fact that SIFY isn't just India based (geographically I mean): they're really after Indians everywhere, since many if not most Indians outside India, in my experience, keep, to lesser and greater degrees, ties with the motherland. The entrpreneurial culture enthusiastically embraced by many Indians, both inside and outside India, is what's exciting about SIFY, and what is, in my opinion, one of the main drivers of the runup in SIFY. So that's one assumption behind the runup.

Another is the booming tech industry in Bangalore, Chennai, and other places, where some of the world's best programming is done, typically for about a tenth the cost of Valley programmers. This will continue. That kind of culture can't help but spawn original and highly creative ventures of all kinds .... SIFY is making all the right moves by partnering early, moving extremely aggressively in M&A activity, and by being transparent in their accounting.

Another assumption is the unbelievably great management of the parent, Satyam Computers, India's best-performing stock of the decade (it's a 400 bagger). That counts for a lot. Again, as you so eloquently stated, what we're looking at here is the *conceptual possibilities.*

And we haven't even talked about the B2B possibilities that the co envisions. Their purchase of IndiaWorld means they now get 30 million hits a month. That is a helluva stroke.

They're only worth $2.5 billion right now. Just by continuing to do what they're doing, I'll be very surprised if they don't hit $10 billion with two years, probably much sooner. It's not all hype--it's the conceptual possibilities.

Thanks again for the thought-provoking response,

Yamakita