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Pastimes : The New Qualcomm - write what you like thread. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1249)	12/15/1999 4:50:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12245

*Bill Frezza moves on data!!* It's time to drag Bill Frezza out of the stable for another flogging - see, persistence pays and he is mobile again, though he's reluctant to agree that data will be mobile any time soon: Message 12291471 An excerpt: <Bill Gates is continuing his foray into the wireless world. While the Microsoft [MSFT] chairman's latest move is drawing raves from analysts, it isn't likely to engender affection from companies that will compete in the wireless data space. Microsoft notched the second [Ed: the first being WirelessKnowledge] wireless notch on its belt in just over a year Wednesday by joint [sic] forces with Ericsson [ERICY] to develop applications for wireless access to the Internet. "We see it as very positive for the whole mobile data industry," says Merrill Lynch [MER] analyst Sherief Bakr. "This partnership will drive mobile Internet space providing easier and faster access." However, William Frezza, general partner of Yardley, Pa.-based venture capitalist firm Adams Capital Management, is not as quick to spin the joint venture. "People need to moderate their expectations," Frezza says. "We are in the middle of another cycle of enthusiasm for wireless data," he adds. "The services that are being promised cannot be fulfilled on today's networks. Real broadband data access is years and years away." > Bill has complained many times that his mistake was to be too far ahead of technology in the real world. He started some unsuccessful companies with good ideas, but too early. A bit like CDMA in 1993 looked great, but it actually took another 5 years to really dig into the real world. Now, he seems to have tried to remedy this by going the other way - moderating expectations to 'years and years away', which could be only two years if we take that literally, but usually people means something over 5 years when they say years and years, because otherwise they would say year and year away if they mean two years. Well, Japan is rolling out their first cdmaOne/notebook puter WWeb effort on 7 January, which is not years and years. Korea Telecom Freetel, Microsoft and Qualcomm are planning some HDR action as soon as it's ready. Nobody is going to want to be left out of the data race, but people are scared of being first when there is a risk that it will not actually happen for 'years and years'. The ThinPhone is plugging straight into notebook puters now and providing WWeb access. cdma2000 and the VW40 clone are nearing convergence and final specification, though VW40 seems to have a quarreling rabble over the payments for IP [intellectual property not internet protocol] involved. They are used to their extorquerationate GSM royalties [about 15%] though they whine like a fleet of 747s over the derisory 5% cdma2000 royalty cost, so they are unhappy about the whole situation. Also, there are going to be many competitors in cdma2000 so margins will be thin and development rapid. Bill Frezza sees HDR and co as just another round of enthusiasm for wireless data as though there is nothing different this time. This time there is speed, the Web and low costs with high processor power in the WWeb device and multitudes more people who want the service. Any one of those variables would be enough to ensure success this time around, but the combination is going to see a high voltage success - a giant spark of energy. Technology success with customers depends on the difference between the value gained and the cost. There is a huge difference now in the WWeb. As in electrical currents, the flow rate depends on the voltage = the difference between the two points of charge. Markets are not like a wire where the current gradually increases as the voltage increases. They are more like lightning - the voltage increases until the resistance is overcome then there is a spark and a huge surge of energy. Until now, the cost and functionality of notebook puters has been too high. Data rates have been too slow. There hasn't be a great amount of useful data to send. The cost of sending the signal has been high. The number of users wanting the service has been trivial. But now, Qualcomm with Net2Phone are breaking through the price barrier on the long distance links. Notebook puters are powerful and cheap. The Web is huge and hundreds of millions of people want the information available from it. The cost of WWeb air interfaces is dropping quickly. The data rate is increasing rapidly [now at least 64kbps with HDR and cdma2000 coming down the 'pike]. This is a lightning bolt situation with rapid and early adoption a certainty. Anyone left behind will regret it. There will be plenty of road-kill. Some service providers won't price their services right using WWeb Marketing 101 principles such as When the cat's away, the rats will play. They probably haven't even heard of it! They'll get frustrated customers who can't log on while their buddies next to them are happily surfing. Silly little Web pages won't do it either. People want bandwidth, which means not squinting at little screens. They want A4-sized imagery in front of them! Big stuff, fast, colourful and cheap [virtual images being fine in many circumstances; for example carrying something such as Sony3D Webglasses would be better than carting around a notebook puter]. How nice of Bill Frezza to make an appearance to give credibility to data now. Flogging a live horse, Mqurice