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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (6174)	12/16/1999 10:53:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

Re: DSL Chip Sales - Alcatel's(sym:ALA) Lead Thread, I found this article a few weeks ago, but never got around to posting it. Sorry I can't remember where I found it. Apparently from the stated figures, DSL rollouts are really neck-neck with cable modem. MikeM(From Florida) ________________________ Six Million DSL chips in 1999 for One Million customers? Alcatel leads with 2.4 Million The industry is skeptical of the chipmakers' claims, because the published figures suggest deployment to date of fewer than half a million lines. Alcatel 2.4M lead, with Conexant, Globespan, and ADI all over a million, therefore raised eyebrows in the industry. DSL Prime's research confirms the accuracy of these figures, however. Actual subscribers by the end of the year will be about 700K in the US, and worldwide should cross 1.5M in the first quarter of next year, as these chips go into equipment. That explains 3M chips (one for the customer, one for the central office), and the balance is accounted for by the common industry practice of installing multiple line cards in advance of demand, with several hundred lines being commonly installed with the DSLAM. This ties up some capital, but saves the labor cost of a repeat visit to the CO. Pierre Garnier of Alcatel confirmed to us that sales accelerated in third and fourth quarters, and that customer projections for 2000 are even higher. DSL has becoming the driving engine for Alcatel worldwide.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (6174)	1/6/2000 4:35:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

Re: Lucent (sym:LU) Warns for Quarter Ending Dec 31, 1999 Thread-- Maybe a nice buying op for last mile investors tomorrow? I tied this post to a previous mention of LU with all the other big players in the telecom space. Depending upon how the news is interpreted, this warning may pull down the other big players temporarily. IMVHO, the statement, "The strongest growth is expected in the second half of fiscal 2000 as the company's newest optical, network access and semiconductor products ramp up for full volume and deployment," is probably going to turn out to be accurate. What I found most interesting, is Lehman Brothers sure got caught on the wrong side for a change. Nice to know it's just not us private investors that get smacked on unexpected warnings. --MikeM(From Florida) ********************* Lucent price target raised to $95 RESEARCH ALERT NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers on Thursday said it had raised the price target for Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU.N) to $95 from $90. -- Calendar 2001 revenues are estimated at $54.9 billion, compared to $45.3 billion for 2000. -- A 2001 earnings per share estimate was set at $1.87. EPS estimate for 2000 remains at $1.53. -- Shares of Lucent were down 1-5/8 at 71 in trade on the New York Stock Exchange. __________________________ Lucent Technologies Comments on Expectations for First Fiscal Quarter 2000 Earnings** MURRAY HILL, N.J., Jan. 6 -- Lucent Technologies LU said today that, based on preliminary estimates, it expects operating results for its first fiscal quarter of 2000 to be lower than analysts' estimates. The company expects to report revenues in the range of $9.8 to $9.9 billion for the quarter, which ended Dec. 31, 1999, flat with the prior year period(1) The company expects earnings per share for the quarter to be in the range of 36 to 39 cents compared to 48 cents for the year-ago quarter.(2) "We are clearly disappointed with the results for the quarter," said Lucent Technologies Chairman and CEO Richard McGinn. "We still expect our revenues to continue to grow three-to-five percentage points faster than the overall communications networking market," McGinn said. "However, given the slow start for the year, we expect to be in the lower end of that range for fiscal 2000." Analysts estimate that the overall communications networking market is growing at about 14 percent a year. McGinn said the company expects bottom-line growth of approximately 20 to 25 percent for the fiscal year over last year's earnings per share of $1.20. For the second fiscal quarter, the company indicated it expects top-line growth of approximately 12 to 15 percent over last year's level of $8.78 billion and bottom-line growth of approximately 25 to 35 percent over last year's 17 cents a share. The strongest growth is expected in the second half of fiscal 2000 as the company's newest optical, network access and semiconductor products ramp up for full volume and deployment. The company attributed the lower than expected revenue and earnings for the first fiscal quarter to several factors, including: -- Faster than anticipated shifts in customers' purchases to Lucent's newest 80-channel DWDM optical product line and greater than expected demand for OC-192 capability on the 80-channel systems, which resulted in near-term manufacturing capacity and deployment constraints; -- Changes in implementation plans by a number of customers inside and outside the United States, which led to delays in network deployments by enterprises and service providers; -- Lower software revenues, reflecting an acceleration in the continuing trend by service providers to acquire software more evenly throughout the year. In the past, these purchases occurred primarily in the quarter ending December 31; and -- Preliminary results show lower than anticipated gross margins this quarter from ramp-up costs associated with introducing and implementing new products and lower software revenues. The company expects the capacity and deployment issues to be resolved by the end of the second fiscal quarter as new product introductions are completed, production adjustments meet increased customer demand, and additional resources are added for deployment. The company also anticipates the major network deployments that were delayed to occur during fiscal 2000.