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To: Don Green who wrote (35874)	12/15/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

DON: OTOT Irwin Kellner column at CBS Marketwatch is my favorite commentary. I just sold Jan 3220 NDX Calls today for $175. That's a 5% premium for one month. It works out to 60% per annum. LOL john cbs.marketwatch.com Buy high, sell higher By Dr. Irwin Kellner, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 11:25 AM ET Dec 14, 1999 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Is it me, or have the rules suddenly changed? "When it comes to the stock market, people seem to be ignoring price, value and research in favor of hopping on whichever bandwagon is moving the fastest." Dr. Irwin Kellner When it came to investing in the stock market, it used to be that people would do lots of research, then try to buy low and sell high. It used to be that people bought a company's shares for growth in its earnings and dividends. It used to be that when prices would rise, demand would fall, and vice-versa. Indeed, it was just the other day (see my column of Dec. 10) that people seemed to be value-conscious about everything. They were not about to overpay no matter what the occasion or what was being offered. This referred to New Year's Eve celebrations, but it could have applied to just about anything people purchase nowadays. Except stocks. When it comes to the stock market, people seem to be ignoring price, value and research in favor of hopping on whichever bandwagon is moving the fastest. In today's market, this means technology stocks, which seem to be defying not just the laws of gravity, but common sense as well. Today's special: Internet stocks The Internet stocks seem to be the flavor du jour. These ".com" companies have nothing but red ink on their books, but buyers (notice I did not call them "investors") could care less. Other favorites include stocks of companies that make or sell software, cellular phones, and computers, most of which trade on the Nasdaq. Dominated by these names, the Nasdaq Composite Index has jumped by a whopping 67 percent this year! Even this pales by comparison with some recent initial public offerings, whose one-day gains were in triple digits. See related story. Most of these startups have garnered bigger market capitalizations in one day than many old-line, blue-chip companies have been able to obtain in years, if not decades, of existence. And, lest we forget, these blue-chips earn money and pay dividends. So where do we go from here? Not much further, in my view. One of two things is likely to happen. Some people will remember the old axiom that bulls can make money, bears can make money, but hogs, people who are too greedy, usually get slaughtered. They will sell in order to lock in their gains, thereby depressing prices. Or the Federal Reserve, concerned about irrational exuberance and its accompanying wealth effect on consumer spending (see related story), will hike rates with an eye toward doing the same. And that's my final answer. Dr. Irwin Kellner, chief economist of CBS MarketWatch, is Weller professor of economics at Hofstra University.