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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (35252)	12/15/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: Robert McHale	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Just a word of caution.This market is overvalued. Caring about this fact will, will cost you what you got. In the year 99 I have had approx 40 thou in puts expire @ 0 . Good riddance. An objecive non fundamental attitude to positions have given me back what I lost plus a couple HUNDRED %. If you se downside pull back. don't buy puts. Thats what keeps this thing going. I dont give a shit either way. Making money is easy all you need is eyes wide open.

To: Berney who wrote (35252)	12/15/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Berney, >>>I follow these 63 Big Boyz that represent about 40% of US equity.<<< Inquiring minds want to know, which 63? Are they all in OEX? Did you choose them based on market cap or some other criteria? Vitas

To: Berney who wrote (35252)	12/16/1999 8:43:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Berney, what's wrong with including FA stuff? of course your 'follow the money' advice makes sense. even better would be 'anticipate the money'. while i agree that nothing seems to be out there to disturb the current blue skies scenario (i.e. the main props of 'Goldilocks' seem to be o.k.), a lot of imbalances have mounted in the economy. as past economic and financial crises prove, downturns in the rosy outlook are seldom anticipated, but ALWAYS precipitated by such imbalances (current account/trade deficit, credit explosion, negative savings rate, to enumerate a few of the things lurking in the background). in fact, Thailand's economy looked quite similar to the current state of the U.S. economy shortly before it fell into crisis. to this day, nobody can say for sure what actually triggered the crisis, although the imbalances precipitating it have been much talked about in hindsight. regards, hb